Tropical Trouble for East Coast

[Neen273]

The area of low pressure spinning well offshore of the Southeast is being closely monitored for tropical development. The Hurricane Center reports the seventh tropical depression of 2007 could form later today.

The low pressure system will continue to sit over the warm water of the Gulf Stream. By Friday, it could intensify into a tropical storm, which would be named Gabrielle.

According to the East Regional News story, building high pressure over the Northeast will bring the system closer to the East Coast. The developing system by the weekend could impact coastal areas from South Carolina to southern New England.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2007-09-05_08:19&month=9&year=2007

Another one to watch.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 051505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED INLAND NEAR THE BORDER OF
NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
THAT COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REDEVLOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
WELL EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/051505.shtml

Something to be aware of at least. Time will tell as this system has been looked at for the past several days. This is the first Recon flight to the disturbance.

[heybales219]

ABNT20 KNHC 052115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Good news but there's still time...

[srainhoutx]

WONT41 KNHC 071242
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/071242.shtml?

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 071515
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING
WITHIN THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/071515.shtml

[HSmomto4]

We could use the rain

[srainhoutx]

WONT41 KNHC 072106
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAS NOT YET IDENTIFIED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM...AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE
ISSUED THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/072106.shtml?

[Chula]

Please people, this is just not a big deal here.
When and "if" it ever develops, it will then bring some rain on shore somewhere along the East coast but this thing has been hanging around for days and it just is not developing at leat not very rapidly.

At best it will be a minimal storm.

[srainhoutx]

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle forms. Tropical Storm Waches issued for SC/NC coasts.

WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/080243.shtml

[krw0315]

fizzzzzle... it's gone out to sea










or HAS it???