USD, Suprime Crisis, Inflation, Stock Markets and Gold - Ongoing DD/Resources

[jds6958]

USD, Subprime Crisis, Inflation, Stock Markets and Gold - Ongoing DD/Resources

The day that the below information becomes mainstream on CNBC, it is likely too late to protect yourself…

The purpose of this thread is to provide historical information that laid the foundation of today’s current economic situation as well as ways to hedge against and protect against the worst case scenarios. Updates to the OP will be made often to reflect ongoing developments. It is quickly not becoming an issue of if but when.

This thread is not an intention to cause panic but to inform, to be an enabler to assist those interested in learning and preparing for the seemingly inevitable economic implosion.

Please feel free to add thoughts, comments, perspective, analysis, contrary views, and additional DD/resources.

A prudent man sees danger and takes refuge, but the simple keep going and suffer for it. Proverbs 22:3

In the house of the wise are stores of choice food and oil, but a foolish man devours all he has.
Proverbs 21:20


http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
1/1970 – An article published in the 1970’s when it was first recognized that the current economical system was heading towards a conclusion that all fiat currencies eventually and must achieve. It is a very enlightening article even today. The US has been able to impressively stretch out the final conclusion of the USD given its ability to increase the national debt and hide real market conditions. The sub prime crises is expected to be the straw that breaks the camels back. Interest rates can be raised to bring life back in to the USD because it would exterminate many financial entities resulting in bank runs, a market collapse, and a depression. Therefore the USD is expected to be sacrificed as a result therefore likely igniting stagflation (likely happening just now), eventually hyperinflation, and then a recession.
- Stagflation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation - The last section should be of particular interest.
- Hyperinflation - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
http://www.usagold.com/germannightmare.html
http://www.answers.com/topic/hyperinflation?cat=health
- Recession - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team
3/1988 – An executive presidential working group is granted authority to meddle in US economic affairs, including those relating to the stock market. The goal of this group is to provide stability in the markets. They are granted to create money and dump it in the US markets to artificially support the stock markets to avoid a crash. The creation of money reduces the value of the USD because of its increased supply thereby aiding in an elevated rate of inflation.

http://www.freedomforceinternational.org/newsarchive/FRN_decline_chart.pdf
12/1989 – The USD over time….


http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=340
8/2004 – An article examining actual governmental reports and data. Surfaces how changes over the years and how different administrations have made it appear to the public that all is well in the economy.

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=341
8/2004 - An article examining actual governmental reports and data regarding the unemployment rate. Surfaces how changes over the years and how different administrations have made it appear to the public that all is well in the economy.

http://www.rense.com/general60/vure.htm
11/2004 – It is first noted that China and India are dumping the USD discreetly. Mainstream awareness of China dumping the USD would escalate the evaporation of the value of the USD. China does not want the USD to collapse too quickly as it has the largest investment in USD. To protect its portfolio and to hedge against a continuing dollar decline China is likely accumulating gold and also the Euro. Although it has been a gradual pattern for quite some time, the USD value has really eroded significantly in the last couple years.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,16416680-28737,00.html
8/2005 - News article discussing ramifications of USD collapse, recognizing it as a plausible scenario. This article was written in 2005. It predicted current events that are happening now. Article discusses likely sub prime meltdown and what it would mean to the global economy.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg102805.html
10/2005 – Gold and the USD/inflation

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird021506.html
2/2006 – Actual real price of gold when inflation is considered.

http://www.nowandfutures.com/articles/20060426M3b,_repos_&_Fed_watching.html
4/2006 – Fed ceases to publish the M3 report that highlights the amount of USD being created. The more USD that is created the bigger the USD supply. In additional to foreign governments dumping the USD on to the market (increasing USD supply) the creation of USD also increases the supply thereby fueling inflation and the devaluing of the USD. It is interesting to note that the Fed stopped publishing this report and their comments as to why. The data is still available to calculate, but it is extremely complex and most economists do not take the time.

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343
10/2006 – An informative article outlining how the CPI is manipulated, citing important historical facts. Demonstrates how actual inflation rate is extremely high compared to governmental reports. Since social security payments are attached to the CPI, recipients should actually be receiving at least 50% more in payments.
Additional and recommended CPI information/graphs:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/cpi_lie.html


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajeHLOsdjpng&refer=home
12/2006 - U.A.E. Dumping USD for Euros. This is an obvious attempt to hedge against continuing USD collapse.

[jds6958]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=COR20070412&articleId=5370
4/2007 – Oil economy begins making shift to trade oil in Euro instead of USD.

http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_2304.shtml
4/2007 - Early article highlighting the sub prime crises and its likely impact. Note that Fed behavior in addressing the issue is demonstrating a blatant bias towards hyperinflation as the lesser of two evils. “Helicopter Ben (Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman) earned his name some years ago by giving a speech in which he said that he could stop a panic from becoming a depression by dumping bales of dollars out of helicopters to provide stimulus.”

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor041707.html
4/2007 – Article making predictions of the USD price in gold as it relates the further devaluing of the USD and inflation.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/laird/jul312006.html
6/2007 – Interesting article predicting an upcoming economic crisis.

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/dollar-vulnerable/2007/09/12/
9/2007 – USD continues its decline as strong global currency.

http://www.currencytrading.net/2007/7-countries-considering-abandoning-the-us-dollar-and-what-it-means/
11/2007 – Countries considering abandoning the USD. The list is not too surprising. The US military is supported by growing the national debt. Forcing the US into bankruptcy is to ensure a definite US military reduction and withdraw from global affairs.

http://www.plungeprotectionteam.com/
10/2007 – A blog created to monitor the actions of the PPT. The PPT’s actions are becoming much more apparent and visible given current economic conditions and market sentiment.

[jds6958]

http://mfile.akamai.com/6713/wma/glennbeck.download.akamai.com/6713/preview/07/11/jwinterviewfull.asx
11/2007 - Audio commentary discussing current inflation and the USD. It is extremely helpful in understanding current macroeconomic events. It is a must listen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071115/economy.html
11/2007 – The situation is on the brink of becoming more mainstream. We have been in a recession for 1-2 years. It is now hitting the consumer level. Once it hits mainstream it will be harder and harder to protect ones assets from the meltdown. Note that the data produced by the Gov. regarding the CPI and job reports is extremely understated. Most of the new jobs created are based on a formula statistic expecting a jump in the construction industry. This is not even based on real information, just speculation. The housing market has imploded, so this is not even a valid speculation. Being early is key to protect oneself.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article2852547.ece 11/2007 – FASB 157 is approved! Creative accounting methods in the banking industry will begin to surface very soon! If it is believed the market is nervous now, wait till the knowledge of how much junk is actually in the known 450 trillion dollars. The size of the mountain of over the counter derivatives is above $450 trillion dollars! The size of the world economy is slightly above $145 trillion. What do you think the risk factor is on $450 trillion worth of garbage paper, from CDOs, CBOs and now CLOs? Is it $2 trillion like the London Financial Times said yesterday, is it $20 trillion or maybe even $200 trillion? The global economy will have an impossible time absorbing this blow to the markets.

http://www.dailyreckoning.us/blog/?p=614
11/2007 – Commentary on today’s gold price.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...itedowns_N.htm
11/2007 "may begin to hit everyday savers" The sub prime crisis is becoming more mainstream but its impact is not yet fully recognized

http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?msg=1214736&tf=wall_street_pit&cmd=read
11/2007 – USD decline is beginning to be recognized by some public individuals. Mainstream awareness is growing but its impact is not yet fully recognized.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119499665401691973.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
11/2007 – In addition to false data reporting, “operation white noise” is projecting bias into the market trying to manipulate outcomes. It may buy time but that is all it can do.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird111407.html
11/2007 – Access to credit is drying up. Credit fuels the economy and a crashing halt is possible, unless the Fed creates money to be available which further reduces the value of the USD.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/15/bcngold115.xml
11/2007 – Gold production slowing, demand increasing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXH9wCx1oydw
11/2007 – Key influential people recommending to dump the USD

http://ml-implode.com/
11/2007 – Number of imploded mortgage institutions approaches 200

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8813.htm
11/2007 – Hyperinflation being predicted as more and more likely.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21829883
11/2007 – China is attacking USD, now orchestrating its decline.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/CreditPainIsGainForASelectFew.aspx
11/2007 - Some are profiting over meltdown. Situation becoming more visible.

[jds6958]

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
11/2007 – A “soft landing” is what the Fed is trying to achieve, however a “hard landing” is becoming more and more likely. Eventually a psychological tipping point will be reached and mass exodus of either the markets, the dollar, or both will lead to and economic meltdown.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071118/ap_on_bi_ge/opec;_ylt=Ahmc.or0Rj52w8K67mzOBqWs0NUE
11/2007 – A pivotal point in the USD. If OPEC stops using the USD for oil transactions the USD is no longer….

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071119/bs_ft/fto111820072012564168
11/2007 - Global concern over the USD continues.

http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=200363&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=30244
11/2007 – USD with more negative press

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=37689&sn=Detail
11/2007 – Example of current hyperinflation

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071120/bs_afp/forexeurope;_ylt=Apu9jF823355kn9bYa.gmWqyBhIF
11/2007 – USD reaches another all time low against Euro.

http://functionpix.com/index.php/article/The_great_depression_of_2008__the_mother_of_all_de pressions/1647/
11/2007 - Good article about how sub prime crisis will affect the economy.

Alternate currency solutions?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/11/AR2007111100998.html
11/2007 – Digital gold?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_currency_union
11/2007 – Amero?

Other recommended resources:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/ - Various articles
http://www.jsmineset.com/ - Daily blog – highly recommended
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/ - Daily blog and message board.
http://www.howtodothings.com/finance-and-money/a3620-how-to-buy-a-gold-american-eagle-coin.html - how to purchase actual deliverable physical gold
http://www.bullionvault.com/ - Most recommended way to buy gold and hold it in an offshore vault in case that owning gold once AGAIN becomes illegal in the US.

Additional ways to prepare. Suggestions on food/protection etc.
http://home.comcast.net/~edithaz/
http://www.rr-bb.com/showthread.php?...ht=preparation

[jds6958]

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/IndustryInfo/story?id=3876981&page=1

must read, it now really seems mainstream...did you ever think that you would see an article in your time warning you about bank runs and failures, from FORBES nonetheless....it is getting close....please please if you are not prepared, at least make a plan of action....


Is Your Bank at Risk of Failure?
Could Your Bank Fail? What You Need to Know When Stashing Away Your Cash

Concerns about liquidity in the banking system have raised the possibility that there will be an increase in bank failures in the next year or so.

Bank failures in the U.S. are rare--the three logged so far this year are out of nearly 8,000 banks in existence--and there have been just 28 since 2000. From mid-2004 until this February. there were no failures, the largest span of time without any since the Great Depression.


But the credit meltdown that has simmered since the summer has depleted capital levels, and banks are getting stuck with mortgage-related assets, the values of which have declined sharply in the last few months. Regulators have been fretting about the problem since early this year.

[Chariots]

A source of mine that works at a Bank in California (medium size bank) said their $80,000 Christmas party for all the branches was cancelled. The profits fell from $15 million last year to a paltry $1 million this year. They have started lay offs and who knows when it will stop.

Alot of it is related to the sub-prime collapse. The notes were ARM's with excessively low payments for the first three years upon this three year balloon the payments jump back up. As these notes come due and the property has devalued the sub-prime mess will continue to grow.

New Lending practices go into effect in March (I don't know if this is in California only). Anyone with a credit rating of 690 or less will have to come up with 30% down on any house purchase. Credit is going to tighten and the housing market is going to get worse before it gets better. How many entry level home buyers have stellar credit (they are young and still building credit)? How many will have the 30% it takes to buy a home. Expect the number of first time home buyers to shrink drastically.

[jds6958]

A source of mine that works at a Bank in California (medium size bank) said their $80,000 Christmas party for all the branches was cancelled. The profits fell from $15 million last year to a paltry $1 million this year. They have started lay offs and who knows when it will stop.
.......................


Yep, a lot of these banks are hurting, and it seems like it is just starting...

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5503_derivativesgraph.pdf

[Issachar]

Looks a bit steep since the start of '06, eh? Not that it wasn't ridiculously increasing already before that. So, how many billions are holding up this 500+ trillion stack?

Issachar

[jds6958]

Looks a bit steep since the start of '06, eh? Not that it wasn't ridiculously increasing already before that. So, how many billions are holding up this 500+ trillion stack

Issachar

if it is just 1%, which may be on the low end, then we may be talking about trillions...

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/11/21/afx4362789.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119568675939001081.html

[Look4Truth]

Thanks for taking the time to put this research together. I've been studying this issue for a couple of years now and I can say that we're in for a big change soon. Just as many economists are predicting a worldwide depression, I believe we will see one at the very latest, next year. Just watching the dollar crash the way it is makes one just shake their head.