Please Don't Be Fooled

[Issachar]

http://www.geocities.com/rebornempowered/mandrake/mandrake.htm

At this link is a chart; a flow chart. If you are not familiar with flow charts, they can at first look intimidating ... but only look at one step at a time. There are lines and arrows showing where to go next on a flow chart. They are not difficult to follow, although, as I said, they can look like it at first. My point is, I hope you all can take a few minutes to follow this thing. It will give you a very good heads up on how our fiat economy works and more importantly, why failure of such systems is intrinsic to the system. Fiat systems always (literally 100% of the time) go through a final phase of hyper-inflation and then burn out. This is happening right now in Zimbabwe. A brief study of what is happening there is like a preview of what will happen here, eventually.

Now, there are some folks who insist that such talk as this is "doom & gloom". That d & g term induces two emotions in me. First is a smile. I have to ask, what is doom & gloom? If one has an attitude in life of "woe is me; the sky is falling, the sky is falling" and NOTHING ever goes right and basically, there is nothing good and the doom & gloom term is applied to such an individual, I can go with that I think. That sort of individual needs help; especially salvation. But if one is generally into life and has a healthy circle of folks to hang out with and is excited to go through life and has energy and motivation to do things and learn things, etc., but they see something quite amiss in an area and takes time to point it out, that person is not a doom & gloom person. To put a pretty face on a bad situation is phony. It is not true optimism, though it can at first seem to have the appearance of optimism. If someone is nearing the peak of Mt. Everest and some major event occurs, such as a blizzard, the survivors, if any, are going to be those that recognize the danger they are in, admit the danger they are in and calmly (as opposed to panic) take the appropriate action. If a climber says, "Oh, it's just a small snow storm, it will pass, let us continue on, they have these things all the time up here, etc. .... the next climbing team, perhaps years later, will find some very white, very rigid, optimists. The other emotion I experience is sort of kind of like anger. At least some degree of frustration. That is because so many are so ignorant of how much of the world works and because of that, they are easily lead astray by very white, very rigid optimists. It's no different than not knowing the Word of God and therefore, being lead astray by false teachers. I know I'm preaching to the choir here because if you're here, you are likely already seeking out what is going on in the world and trying to understand it and make sense of it. Our working model here is that the Word of God is truth and we plug data into that model and it fits.

Anyway, this is a must see video:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=fiat+empire

Here is, in a nutshell due to time constraints, my very brief thought on all this from a spiritual perspective. In Christ, we are separate from the world; set apart unto the Father's will. In Him we know peace. In Him is contentment. In Him is rest. Because these things; peace, contentment and rest, are due to being in Him and He in us, circumstances can fluctuate up and down all they want and we will still have peace, contentment and rest. It's because He is the Rock and does NOT fluctuate. The "world" seeks peace and contentment and rest in "things". But "things" "of the world" fluctuate constantly.

I doubt that I really communicated here what I really have in my heart but it is an evolving attempt.

Habakkuk 3:
17 Although the fig tree shall not blossom, neither shall fruit be in the vines; the labour of the olive shall fail, and the fields shall yield no meat; the flock shall be cut off from the fold, and there shall be no herd in the stalls:
18 Yet I will rejoice in the LORD, I will joy in the God of my salvation.
19 The LORD God is my strength, and he will make my feet like hinds' feet, and he will make me to walk upon mine high places.

Philippians 4:
11 Not that I speak in respect of want: for I have learned, in whatsoever state I am, therewith to be content.
12 I know both how to be abased, and I know how to abound: every where and in all things I am instructed both to be full and to be hungry, both to abound and to suffer need.

Though the economy I speak of is "of the world" and in a real sense we are separate from it, it can have a large impact on our natural man. So it behooves us to go into the future with our eyes wide open and on Christ the Lord.

Merry Christmas.

Issachar

[Issachar]

This post will make the most sense if you've watched the video at the link in the first post.

The dollar is a fiat currency. ALL fiat currencies are intrinsically designed to fail. Now "failure" in this context is from a general populace perspective. They (fiat systems of economy) are a great success for those that set them up because they always accomplish what they are designed to do; transfer wealth from the masses to the few; the few that have set themselves up as the "guardians" of the world because "they have special knowledge and are well able to determine what is good for all". Wise in their own eyes is what they are. Without the gospel, repentance and rebirth in Christ, they are as doomed as their phony money systems. Death takes them down from their high horse and places them on a very level playing field with those they despise. All pretense is stripped away and we stand very naked before all. On that field, the only thing that matters, of course, is whether or not Jesus says, I never knew you or enter in thou good and faithful servant.

Issachar

[logosone]

Dial-up bound here so can't do video, maybe I can leave it on download for awhile?. But anyway, I think you are telling it right. The finance picture is not something people have a good grip on and I would include myself there, but I think I have a basic understanding of how the numbers are teetering. Part of the problem in my view is that things have been way good, way long and there is really no appreciation for just how bad things could get.

As I try to feably explain in another post here, government spending in entitlements, social programs and defense and on and on in unbridled and unconstitutional fiscal responsibility has largely insulated our economy for decades. Take a look at the numbers? It's simply not sustainable and is certainly ridiculously overextended and largely uncorrectable at this point.

Nothing is backing these deficit numbers except (and I kid you not! ), IOU's simply written on pieces of paper in a single file cabinet in the Treasury Department's, Bureau of Public Debt in Parkersburg, WV. People think you're a pandering doomsayer if you hold up th cold hard facts and unfortunately it's going to catch so many completely in their lala land perception of 'all things will continue as they have been".

[frodo82801]

I don't believe that situation is as bad as a lot of people would have you believe. On many levels, the economy is still quite strong. There are certainly weak areas, but things could be a lot, lot worse.

[Issachar]

On many levels, the economy is still quite strong. I know that there is a degree of sound economics going on. But I also know that as a nation, the economic "strength" is based on debt. Imho, that is akin to building a house on the sand. If I am wrong on this, then we would not see such fear in the banking/lending industry over the so called "credit crunch"; which is to say, the ability to increase debt. Much of the economy is debt driven. I cannot believe that you don't know that. I think you do. Please tell me what your opinion is of what would happen to the US economy tomorrow if today, it was made so that no one could buy anything on credit. If folks merely work, receive a wage and only buy off of that wage with cash, where would the economy be ... say, at the end of first quarter '08? This is a serious question and I hope to get a serious answer. Maybe we could back the question up to Oct. 1, '07? Where would we be in the retail business today? Where would we be THIS AFTERNOON if ... say, 8% of the US population decided that they wanted to withdraw their "money" from the bank? I can tell you that it would not even be allowed. the gov't/banks would declare a banking holiday. What, iyho, is the reason that prices are around 1,500% higher than 40-50 years ago? The average savings rate per family in the US in the 1960's was about 20% of income. Today it is about -2% on average. The standard of living has not gone up. We still have a house to live in, two vehicles, a tv/radio, food, shower, clothing .... about the only thing that has changed is the quality of some things and that is somewhat questionable. i.e. Healthcare as the medical field learns and develops new techniques and medicines and treatments ... but the average life expectancy is the same and something is making it so that more people today have cancer than before as well as some other diseases so the medical advances are somewhat offset. But the bottom line is, our standard of living has not changed much but merely varied some and yet, it is apparently taking all savings, and then some, to keep it that way. Why is that? What if the nation went back to the general rule of thumb that was in place when I bought my first house as recent as 1977 where you had to have 20% down and the monthly payment could not exceed 25% of you gross monthly income? I'm appalled in light of the current housing hassles at how many lending institutions are still offering ridiculous loans. Better than two years ago? Mostly but that's not saying much considering the lending practices of the past 8-10 years.

To me, this has nothing to do with optimism, pessimism, doom & gloom, etc. It is simply looking at what is currently true in the world of indebtedness and drawing conclusions based on historical evidence and even what is going on in some countries this very day. I'm not positive, but I think you've mentioned being in the stock market? If so, do you watch stocks? Do you look at trends? Do you move stocks? If so, why? "Optimism" should say, "Oh, they'll be alright where they are." Is it "doom & gloom" to move stocks? Because if a trader gets out of one stock and into another, by default, that trader is saying he didn't trust what was going on in the former. I know, I know ... a crummy analogy, but I'm trying to say that everyday we watch all sorts of things and take evasive action when we deem it necessary. I'm simply saying we need to prepare to take evasive action and indeed, should already be doing so, given the debt levels and "credit crunch" that exists because credit is the only thing holding up those massive debt levels and all of it is being controlled by mosly ungodly folk. That translates into the only wisdom being used is that of man which I think we can agree, is pretty darn feeble at best.

Issachar

[Bernardd]

I know that there is a degree of sound economics going on. But I also know that as a nation, the economic "strength" is based on debt. Imho, that is akin to building a house on the sand. If I am wrong on this, then we would not see such fear in the banking/lending industry over the so called "credit crunch"; which is to say, the ability to increase debt. Much of the economy is debt driven. I cannot believe that you don't know that. I think you do. Please tell me what your opinion is of what would happen to the US economy tomorrow if today, it was made so that no one could buy anything on credit.

What is the point of bringing up this scenario? Do you honestly think that Credit Cards will be outlawed in the not-too-distant-future?

Nevertheless, let's assume your scenario happens. I'm sure there would be many problems (reduction in spending etc), but don't ignore all the advantages that would occur as well in the long run. Imagine how much more money would be in consumers' hands if they no longer had the burden of incurring interest fees etc. Hence, they'd have more money to spend/save/invest.

If folks merely work, receive a wage and only buy off of that wage with cash, where would the economy be ... say, at the end of first quarter '08?
Buy off that wage?? Not sure what you're talking about.

As far as withdrawing money from the bank, when has this NOT been a concern?

The average savings rate per family in the US in the 1960's was about 20% of income. Today it is about -2% on average.
What about investments in real estate, mutual funds, stocks, bonds etc. Perhaps people finally realize that "savings" in a saving account amounts to losing 4% each year through inflation.


The standard of living has not gone up. We still have a house to live in, two vehicles, a tv/radio, food, shower, clothing .... about the only thing that has changed is the quality of some things and that is somewhat questionable. i.e. Healthcare as the medical field learns and develops new techniques and medicines and treatments ... but the average life expectancy is the same and something is making it so that more people today have cancer than before as well as some other diseases so the medical advances are somewhat offset. But the bottom line is, our standard of living has not changed much but merely varied some and yet, it is apparently taking all savings, and then some, to keep it that way.

Standard of living hasn't gone up? Life expectancy hasn't gone up? Go back 100 years and see how long people lived. It wasn't long ago in this country when people didn't even name their children till they were about 2 years old due to infant mortality. Children now born at 25 weeks are viable.

People are developing cancer at a higher rate these days, for one reason, because they're living longer lives. (THe lifespan has doubled in the last 100 years).

Even the number of hours we work per week has been on a steady decline.
http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/whaples.work.hours.us

Go ahead...fire away!

[Issachar]

What is the point of bringing up this scenario? Do you honestly think that Credit Cards will be outlawed in the not-too-distant-future? I believe that in context, my point was that the economy is very dependent on people using debt to make purchases. No, I do not believe credit cards are going away.

I'm sure there would be many problems (reduction in spending etc), but don't ignore all the advantages that would occur as well in the long run. Imagine how much more money would be in consumers' hands if they no longer had the burden of incurring interest fees etc. Hence, they'd have more money to spend/save/invest. Totally agree. I don't ignore the long term benefits. I very much agree that is what would happen. We don't really need to "imagine how much more ..."; it would be a fact. I do not believe though that the general population will voluntarily reduce debt and live on cash, thereby putting more of their earned money into investment. The fallen human nature will almost always look only a few minutes into the future. "What's fun today?!"

Buy off that wage?? Not sure what you're talking about.

As far as withdrawing money from the bank, when has this NOT been a concern? Simply put: I was saying, what if the only way that folks could make purchases was from what they earned vs. "just charge it"? Immediately, it would have a very significant impact on the economy. Withdrawing from the bank enmasse has been an issue for a long time, but not before the hideous practice of fractional reserve banking. Originally, "banking" was merely a safe place for people to store money and they paid the bank some nominal fee for that service. If a depositor wanted their money, it was, of course, there ... right where they put it. The majority of folks today, think that is still the case.

What about investments in real estate, mutual funds, stocks, bonds etc. Perhaps people finally realize that "savings" in a saving account amounts to losing 4% each year through inflation. When savings were in the 20ish% range, people still had investments then too. I am glad to see that you realize inflation will kill savings.

Standard of living hasn't gone up? Life expectancy hasn't gone up? Go back 100 years and see how long people lived. Not quite fair Bernard. I specifically said 40-50 years ago. That puts us back to the 50's and 60's.

What, iyho, is the reason that prices are around 1,500% higher than 40-50 years ago? The average savings rate per family in the US in the 1960's was about 20% of income. Today it is about -2% on average. The standard of living ... Definitely life expectancy shot up from 1900 to 1950.

People are developing cancer at a higher rate these days, for one reason, because they're living longer lives. Aging does not cause cancer. Cancer is the result of a crappy environment which includes, especially, all the crud that is in our food.

Issachar

[logosone]

It used to be that Banks and Credit Cards provided YOU with a service, and now they resemble Vito down in front of the Pool Hall! Ah! Washington lobbyists, gotta lov'm!

[Bernardd]

During the first half of the 20th century revolutionary advances in medicine and public health were responsible for raising the average life expectancy in the U.S. by more than 20 years -- from age 47 in 1900 to age 68 in 1950.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,222099,00.html

Thus, since 1950 the U.S. life expectancy has increased about 20%. (Today we're at about 78 years).

Simply put: I was saying, what if the only way that folks could make purchases was from what they earned vs. "just charge it"? Immediately, it would have a very significant impact on the economy. Withdrawing from the bank enmasse has been an issue for a long time, but not before the hideous practice of fractional reserve banking. Originally, "banking" was merely a safe place for people to store money and they paid the bank some nominal fee for that service. If a depositor wanted their money, it was, of course, there ... right where they put it. The majority of folks today, think that is still the case.

What if? This hypothetical pondering really leaves us nowhere. "What if " everyone simply paid off his credit card debt? We can argue these two "what ifs" and never really get anywhere.

You're also overlooking some benefits to all this charging. For instance, because consumers are purchasing on debt, how many jobs have been created? How many more items are demanded each year because consumers are willing to use their credit? You can obviously suggest that these jobs are artificially created, but the fact is they exist. Someone (arguably) is now working who would not have a job if there were no credit.

If the credit cards all disappeared, so would many jobs...at least for a while. Yes, it would have a negative impact in many aspects (in the short term). All that revenue would be lost from the banks who charge those ridiculous interst rates. Yet at the same time, all that interest would remain in the consumers' hands.

I would certaily agree we have issues with our banking system, but simply leaving money in a bank does not generate wealth for anyone. Banks aren't designed as the proverbial "lock box." And I think a vast majority of the people who invest their money understand this. And as for the "run on" on the bank, this is a threat that's been with us for a long long time. The fact is, there are no guarantees. We can hide the money in our matress and simply lose out to inflation. OR, we can accept risks with a bank which yield a higher return. OR, we can accept even larger risks in the market that yield and even bigger return. Nothing is guaranteed...nothing is completely safe. Perhaps keeping our money at home increases the risk of burglary. The question is, which risk are you willing to accept?

When savings were in the 20ish% range, people still had investments then too. I am glad to see that you realize inflation will kill savings.

Just prior to the Great Depression, approx 25-30% of Americans had money in the stock market. Today, it's over 50%. Furthermore, the percentage of money in the market is much greater than it was back then. (I'll have to find data to support this, but I think you and I recently had this conversation on another thread....I think it was you....where i cited my data). People have much easier accesss to stock investments with the Internet and even now have 401K offered to them from their employers. This is completely different from 50 years ago when one required an EXPENSIVE stock broker. Today purchases are $5-$8 per purchase...mutual funds etc. are virtually FREE!

Definitely life expectancy shot up from 1900 to 1950.
And as I posted, it has shot up 20% since 1950.


Aging does not cause cancer. Cancer is the result of a crappy environment which includes, especially, all the crud that is in our food.
I never said extended life expectancy caused cancer. My point was that the longer we live, the more likely we are to suffer from illnesses that don't impact younger people, cancer being a pefect example.

Of course I agree that cancer is caused by many things in our environment, and the LONGER we're exposed to them, the more likely it is will succomb to cancer.

[Bernardd]

The point is that the market is much worse than people realize.
Call me a doom and gloom guy. I prefer to call myself a realist and realize that just because I am doing well doesn't mean everyone else is. I believe our economy is headed for a major catastrophe. If not in the next few years, then surely not longer than that. It is impossible to keep an economy running smoothly when people spend more than they make.

If you call yourself a "realist," then look at the "real" picture. It's now a bad time for sellers, however it's a good time for buyers.