Best newsletters forecast a higher stock market next year

[frodo82801]

If you aren't familiar with Hulbert, he's been ranking investment newsletters for a long, long time. You don't really want to buy an investment newsletter without checking the Hulbert rankings.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/honor-roll-newsletters-see-stocks/story.aspx?guid=%7B3EF2A5B4%2D7213%2D43E1%2D9C4E%2 D63ED9031C12F%7D&dist=

I normally don't put too much weight in the year-ahead forecasts that advisers circulate every December.
But I will make an exception when it comes to the forecasts of the seven newsletters that made it onto the Newsletter Honor Roll for 2008. Based on performance over the past 18 years, this Honor Roll rewards newsletters less for overall returns than for performing well in both up and down markets.
So it behooves us to pay attention to what they are saying.
Here are the seven newsletters, in alphabetical order, along with their forecasts:

[jds6958]

Stock markets will certainly go up in terms of USD. I can not disagree there. But unfortuantly, that is where their analysis falls short. Right now the DOW is at year 2000 levels if you factor in real inflation. It does not matter if the DOW is even $36,000 in 2008 if inflation reduces the value to $10000 in 2007 dollars.

In the Weimar Republic inflationary period the German markets went from 110 in 1920 to 100,000,000,000 in 1923. Was anyone happy about it? Nope.

The country has not cought on yet...

I predict that in 2008 the stock market may deflate some, but eventually inflationary profits and devauled dollars will create the illusion of a higher market, but in terms of value, it will be less...I see an $18,000 DOW rather soon...but I would still be very concerned about being in the markets....

[frodo82801]

I must say, you folks are steadfast. No amount of positive news is going to dissuade you. :)

[jds6958]

I must say, you folks are steadfast. No amount of positive news is going to dissuade you. :)

Yeah, I am pretty confident in my conclusion. It is nice to know what is being labeled as positive though. I like to continue to consider all perspectives.

[Nova]

I must say, you folks are steadfast. No amount of positive news is going to dissuade you. :)

Thank you for the chuckle.

I would love, love, love to be reaching another conclusion. Economics isn't my forte. So over the past 9 months, I've had to really read to come to grips with the situation.

[Bernardd]

I don't know. An 18,000 DOW sounds rather good to me.

[Cameron]

:lol2 Frodo

Good news doesn't sell. Its gotta be gloom and doom and all that stuff. Good news gets in the way of the end times scenario.

Jesus could return on a bright spring day, when there is relative peace in the world and the dow is at 25,000.

[jds6958]

:lol2 Frodo

Good news doesn't sell. Its gotta be gloom and doom and all that stuff. Good news gets in the way of the end times scenario.

Jesus could return on a bright spring day, when there is relative peace in the world and the dow is at 25,000.

I have not seen any mainstream media really pounding doom and gloom as far as predictive models. They state current activity/events but fall short of saying it is the end of the USD. As far as I am concerned the money in media is profiting off of calming the markets and manipulating. Sometimes CNN, NY Times or WSJ are just comical...

[jds6958]

I don't know. An 18,000 DOW sounds rather good to me.

What if today $14,000 could buy you 100 widgets and 200 gizmos but in 2008 when the DOW is $18,000 then $18,000 could only buy you 50 widgets and 100 gizmos. Let's say that widgets and gizmos are what you need to get by on day to day living. Is the $18,000 DOW still good?

Look at the value of the USD in 2000. Look at the DOW in 2000. Look at the DOW today. Look at the value of the USD today. If you had your money in the DOW from 2000 till today your purchasing power remained the same but you now have more USD's.

Which situation would you choose? Having $10 that could buy 4 gallons of milk or $100 that could buy 2 gallons of milk?

This is what is happening. It has always been happening since the begining of the greenback. But now it is accelerating with a promise to go faster. Wages are not going to keep up. People will have more money, but they will be able to buy less.

:hat

[DawnGrace]

Having $10 that could buy 4 gallons of milk ? WHERE? :idunno

" Wages are not going to keep up. People will have more money, but they will be able to buy less."

NOT "will be" but "are now buying less".....

WAKE UP if you don't see it even in your own household RIGHT NOW !!