Best Stock Picks for 2008?

[frodo82801]

Interesting list. Agree? Disagree?

Also, an interesting take on the resiliency of the U.S. economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/10/markets/best_stocks_2008.fortune/index.htm
We'll say this for the U.S. economy: It can take a punch.

Consider the blows it has absorbed just this year. The worst real estate crash since the Great Depression. Pow! Oil prices up from $50 to $90 a barrel since last January. Bam! A subprime mortgage mess metastasizing into a full-blown credit crisis, with banks swallowing billions in losses and cutting back on loans. Baff!

Yet through all the punishment, the economy has barely flinched. "I'm floored by how resilient it has been," says veteran stock strategist Ed Yardeni of Oak Associates. "Had you told me at the beginning of the year this was going to happen, I doubt I would have been very optimistic."

That's why forecasting 2008 is so difficult. History tells us that oil shocks, real estate crashes, and banking crises are harbingers of downturns. Confidence has already plunged as consumers have been pinched by rising energy prices and falling home values.

October saw another bad omen: a decline in discretionary purchases such as books and electronics. Observes Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg: "You have to go back to the 1990-91 recession to find a time that this trend has been so weak heading into the holiday shopping season."

Despite all that, the U.S. economy expanded 3.8% and 4.9% in the second and third quarters, respectively - up from 2.4% and 1.1% during the same periods in 2006. That's right: For all the bad headlines, the American economy appears to be getting stronger.

How can that be? The short answer is globalization. Rapid expansion in the developing world - not just in China and India but in Russia, Brazil, and Turkey, for example - has created new markets for U.S. goods and services, and a weak dollar has made them relatively cheap.

As a result, 44% of the Standard & Poor's 500 companies' revenues comes from abroad, up from 32% in 2001. S&P expects that figure to rise to 50% in 2008. Says Bob Doll, who helps manage some $1.3 trillion as chief investment officer for BlackRock: "The boom in exports is almost as big a positive as housing is a negative."

The bottom line: We think the U.S. economy will slow in 2008 but narrowly miss an outright recession. We expect the overall stock market to bounce around, as it did this year, and deliver anemic single-digit returns.

Of course, some stocks will thrive even when the market as a whole is on the ropes. After interviewing dozens of analysts and money managers and poring over reams of Wall Street research, we've identified ten stocks we believe are poised for big gains in 2008.

[sojourner]

their quote:

"The bottom line: We think the U.S. economy will slow in 2008 but narrowly miss an outright recession. We expect the overall stock market to bounce around, as it did this year, and deliver anemic single-digit returns."

I disagree,,,I think the above quote is just more of mainstream-media whitewashing,,,,,,saying-something, but saying-nothing,,,,,typical of the newspeak out there.......

I think the U.S. economy in 2008 is going to be terrible, and that the "real" stats are hidden under outright government-stat lies. The housing crash has a very long way to go down before it is over,,,and then, nobody will want anything at all to do with real estate,,,,,,

As for what to invest in,,,,,,best thing for people to do is use any of their resources to get out of debt. Inflation will continue to surprise on the upside.................possibly the next "bubble" to be created by all the printed money, will find its way into the precious metals markets and other commodities.......not financial paper............but "real" stuff.......

agree? then again, I could be :hehee

[jds6958]

I saw a couple falacies at first glance...can't comment on them right now...but will later...have a good weekend everyone!

[Judah]

their quote:

"The bottom line: We think the U.S. economy will slow in 2008 but narrowly miss an outright recession. We expect the overall stock market to bounce around, as it did this year, and deliver anemic single-digit returns."

I disagree,,,I think the above quote is just more of mainstream-media whitewashing,,,,,,saying-something, but saying-nothing,,,,,typical of the newspeak out there.......

I think the U.S. economy in 2008 is going to be terrible, and that the "real" stats are hidden under outright government-stat lies. The housing crash has a very long way to go down before it is over,,,and then, nobody will want anything at all to do with real estate,,,,,,

As for what to invest in,,,,,,best thing for people to do is use any of their resources to get out of debt. Inflation will continue to surprise on the upside.................possibly the next "bubble" to be created by all the printed money, will find its way into the precious metals markets and other commodities.......not financial paper............but "real" stuff.......

agree? then again, I could be :hehee


From John Mauldin's Weekly Newsletter

"There was a loss of 436,000 jobs in the household survey. Unemployment rose to 5%, up from 4.4% last February, and 4.7% last month. Writes Philippa Dunne from The Liscio Report: 'Rises of that magnitude are rare; it's 1.6 standard deviations from the mean, and at the 92nd percentile of monthly changes since 1950. They're even rarer outside recessions; of the 55 rises of 0.3 point or more, just 18 have been in expansions, and most of those were either close to recessions or in jobless recoveries. In fact, the last time we saw a 0.3 point rise was in January 2001, two months before the official cycle peak. More than half the rise in unemployment came from permanent job losers.'"

"Now we know why Christmas consumer spending was so weak. And some segments of the economy were particularly hard hit. Unemployment rose to 17.1% for all youth, and 34.7% for black youth (up by 5%!!!). 6.9% of single women with children are unemployed, and are losing jobs faster than the work force at large. Part-time jobs are way up. The BLS also tracks part-time jobs of people who are doing them out of economic necessity, and that is up even more."

"So let's get to the predictions. I think that we are in a recession for most of the first half of this year, and that we begin a slow recovery in the second half. It will be a Muddle Through Economy for at least another year after that. That would suggest that most companies will come under serious earnings pressure. If history is any indicator, that means we should see a bear market in the first half of this year. How deep will depend on how fast the Fed cuts, but I don't think we are looking at anything close to the bear market of 2000-2001. Still, I wouldn't want to stand in front of a bear market train.

Consumer spending is going to slow, and it will be slower to rebound, for reasons outlined above. That will also make the recovery in the stock market a little slower. But I expect to become bullish on the market sometime this summer, if not before. I'm looking forward to it.

It also follows that bonds are a good buy at this point. It would not surprise me to see the 10-year bond fall to 3.5%.

I think the United Kingdom follows the United States into a mild recession, and European growth will come under pressure. Nearly every central bank in the developed world outside of Japan will be cutting rates by the beginning of summer. China will not have a hard landing this year.

I've been bearish on the dollar since early 2002. Sometime in the first half of this year I think we see the dollar bottom out against the euro and the British pound. When the Bank of England and the ECB start cutting their rates, the dollar will start rising. The US will recover faster than its European counterparts, and that will help drive the dollar higher. The dollar is massively undervalued against those currencies. I think the dollar ends up higher by the end of the year, maybe by 10% or more. As I have written before, I expect the dollar to be at $1.20 against the euro once again, and sometime next decade it will be at parity.

But not against Asian currencies. I expect the dollar to continue to drop against the Chinese yuan, the Japanese yen, and other major Asian currencies.

This will be a challenge to gold, and we could be in a period of price consolidation for the yellow metal. But at current prices, gold stocks are attractive.

There will still be significant growth in emerging markets, which will therefore increase demand for oil and energy, offsetting potentially weaker demand in the developed world. Six months from now energy inflation will begin to subside, if only because the year-over-year comparisons become easier. I believe oil is going higher, but maybe not this year, barring a crisis of some type. I am still a believer in natural resource stocks and alternative energy for the long run."

[jds6958]

I've been bearish on the dollar since early 2002. Sometime in the first half of this year I think we see the dollar bottom out against the euro and the British pound. When the Bank of England and the ECB start cutting their rates, the dollar will start rising. The US will recover faster than its European counterparts, and that will help drive the dollar higher. The dollar is massively undervalued against those currencies. I think the dollar ends up higher by the end of the year, maybe by 10% or more. As I have written before, I expect the dollar to be at $1.20 against the euro once again, and sometime next decade it will be at parity.



This is where it gets interesting. It becomes hard to compare the USD against the Euro or even a basket of currencies when all major currencies are now rushing to print cash and cut their rates. Everyone is rushing to deflate their currency. There comes a point where it may look like that the USD is recovering but it is just that other currencies are also printing cash like mad. Think Wiemer Republic, now think global. This means that the USD can recover, but still be worth less :heh.

[jds6958]

Best stock picks for 2008....Physical Gold Bullion in your pocket. Or just begin shorting everything until inflationary profits begin to kick in...

[frodo82801]

Best stock picks for 2008....Physical Gold Bullion in your pocket. Or just begin shorting everything until inflationary profits begin to kick in...
And then get back in stocks when things start turning around?

[jds6958]

And then get back in stocks when things start turning around?

Absolutely, I make most of my income swing trading stocks, or at least I did. Most of my capital is in gold at the moment. In fact I would still be trading, primarily short positions, if I was not so terrified of nearly every financial entity or broker right now. I have some confidence in Scottrade, but I am still just playing it safe. As soon as we hit rock bottom, which means when all that is currently hidden comes to surface and assuming that a light appears at the end of the tunnel then I am back in 100%. It is too premature to begin looking for the light at the end of the tunnel though, and I am still somewhat concerned that this may be so chatastrohic that the US may not fully recover for a while. But it is the recovery that is profitable, not the top. 2011 to 2012 is when I expect rock bottom, no matter how bad or good it appears in 08 09 and 10.

[jds6958]

Despite all that, the U.S. economy expanded 3.8% and 4.9% in the second and third quarters, respectively - up from 2.4% and 1.1% during the same periods in 2006. That's right: For all the bad headlines, the American economy appears to be getting stronger.

This expansion is inflationary which hides the real recession. We have been in a recession since 2001/02 if you factor in the value of the USD. The effects of the recession have been retarded because of confusion by the public...they do not know that we have not been growing...frankly, I don't even think most economist get it. GDP has been going backwards if you consider how much the USD has been devaluing...

[jds6958]

GDP will continue to go up because the dollar is worth less...this is not a good thing...it is an illusion