Likelihood of a Great Depression is growing by the day.

[AlphaOmega7]

International experts foresee collapse of U.S. economy

Posted 11 days ago

And you thought that I had a gloomy outlook on the economy. Now the bad news pops up everywhere.

Harry Koza in the Globe and Mail quotes Bernard Connelly, the global strategist at Banque AIG in London, who claims that the likelihood of a Great Depression is growing by the day.

Martin Wolf, celebrated columnist of the U.K.-based Financial Times, cites Dr. Nouriel Roubini of the New York University's Stern School of Business, who, in 12 steps, outlines how the losses of the American financial system will grow to more than $1 trillion - that's one million times $1 million. That amount is equal to all the assets of all American banks.

Every day now, thousands of people all over the U.S. and Great Britain are walking away from their homes - simply mailing their house keys to the banks - as housing bailout plans fail.

With unemployment growing, the next phase will hit commercial real estate making the financial institutions the unwilling owners not only of quickly depreciating houses, but also of empty strip malls and even larger shopping centres.

more...http://www.intelligencer.ca/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=918803+

[Bernardd]

And you thought that I had a gloomy outlook on the economy. Now the bad news pops up everywhere.
Just be sure you ignore any and all good news.

[Kelly4C]

Just be sure you ignore any and all good news.



:scratch

Do you have any to share?

[tygerkittn]

That's already been happening here, there are empty strip malls and larger shopping centers everywhere, my husband and I were talking about what a blight they are months ago, and there are now more than ever.

[Cowgirl4Christ]

Just be sure you ignore any and all good news.

I just don't understand how you can say that.... I'm sure there is some way you can twist the news to make it look good.... the media is great at that. Bush is trying to do that. But, good grief, that's just trying to start something.

[goinghome]

It makes sense to me that this is coming soon. If you look at just one aspect of the economy like the housing market you can see that tons of banks are basing their $$ net worth on supposed "assets". Say some of these assets are mortgages approximated at a certain value. If mortgages are not paid and housing values going down (as they already have begun to) then these fictitious "assets" lower the amount of money the bank is actually working with. So they might have told the feds they have 8 billion in assets, but a couple of months down the road they only have 5 billion in assets..... same assets, just different valuation of each asset. And Wall Street essentially is making trades, nationally and internationally, based on the fictitious value of supposed "assets" all over the place. It's fake money! Everything we see around us and every dollar we use is based on what human beings estimate future value of ordinary THINGS to be. This house of cards has to come down, swiftly. It's absolutely inevitable.

[AlphaOmega7]

:scratch

Do you have any to share?

Exactly. Bernardd, do you have any good news to share? Please let us know. JDS has an excellent thread going on. You probably have seen it. It's called "USD, Suprime Crisis, Inflation, Stock Markets and Gold - Ongoing DD/Resources" going on 86 pages now. Why don't you start a thread posting news articles showing positive economic news? Because right now, you're losing credibility with your bashing of doom and gloomers while providing very little evidence to the contrary except sarcasm.

[4JesusLove]

Good news! I read where Goodyears CEO and Goldman Sachs Group Inc and a few others gave out millions in bonus's and stock options. At least some people are doing good.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080307/goodyear_executive_compensation.html?.v=1

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080307/goldman_sachs_executive_compensation.html?.v=2

[Bernardd]

Exactly. Bernardd, do you have any good news to share? Please let us know. JDS has an excellent thread going on. You probably have seen it. It's called "USD, Suprime Crisis, Inflation, Stock Markets and Gold - Ongoing DD/Resources" going on 86 pages now. Why don't you start a thread posting news articles showing positive economic news? Because right now, you're losing credibility with your bashing of doom and gloomers while providing very little evidence to the contrary except sarcasm.

I've read JDS's thread and have had a quite a few discussions with him. Clearly, he's well informed and should probably start his own blog. THere are some issue I completely disagree with. For instance, his comparison of America to the pre WWII Germany (specifically Weimar). However, he's made points on that I've never heard anyone make before which really gave me something to chew on.

Also, I get the impression you think THAT I THINK everything is just fine. I've never said that (and I don't know why these words are so often forced into my mouth). Clearly, we have problems and we might very well face great finanical difficulties in the very near future. Personally, I think I've insulated myself...but I might be fooling myself. I accept the possibility that tomorrow my accounts could be erased and whatever wealth I have could vanish. Such is life...

That being said (and it's a shame I always have to make a disclaimer before posting my views), there is good news. For instance, if you're an investor, did you buy up any gold recently? Did you invest in some gold or precious metal funds?

March 7 (Reuters) - Investment in precious metals
exchange-traded funds remains robust as gold and other precious
metals are trading at or near record highs. Changes in gold and silver ETF holdings are closely
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN0756370220080307?rpc=44

Did any of you short sell Goolge ?
Did anyone short sell any tech stock?

Are you looking to buy some real estate now? (Now would be a good time)

I spoke to someone recently about investing in a company that creates or installs solar panels and "Green" (earth friendly) power sources. Might be a good time to start looking at that.

It looks like Guess rebounded in Jan and is currently at its support line. Might be a good time to look there. vol has been thin, though. (Not sure why but GES is on my watch list)

Here's the closing paragraph of an article I read from Investors Business Daily: "So be patient. While it might be true we're in a slump, it's quite likely that by the summer we'll be out of it. Who knows, we may even be having a debate about how to tame a roaring economy."
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080307/issues01.html?.v=1

This is crucial. Everytime the economy takes off, it does so from a slump (recession, depression, whatever). I have to wonder, how many of us are prepared for the boom when it comes? If our investments are strategically placed, we could do well when things turn around.

Anyway, there's still good news out there. I read some every day as I'm looking for opportunities and places to protect my money.

Why don't I post my own good news thread? No interest.

[dramama]

How many consecutive quarters of job losses etc are required before a period of time is defined as a "depression"? I know how many and what are required to be labeled a recession but have forgotten economics 101.....(I'm old, what can I say?)