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SumSam
April 2nd, 2008, 01:12 AM
A post in this thread (http://www.rr-bb.com/showthread.php?t=40279) about American stores getting by with 3 days of inventory had me thinking about the possible downsides to the famous Just In Time system.

JIT and its related cousing Lean Manufacturing, are used by most companies in retail, logistics and manufacturing.JIT/Lean calls for zero or mimimal inventories. They regard inventories as a waste, and something to be eliminated or minimized where possible throughout the "supply chain", right from the parts vendors, manufacturers, shippers, importers down to the retail outlets. The benefits claimed are:

- Inventory carrying costs minimized (warehousing, interest costs)
- costs of obsolescence minimzed (you won't get stuck with a lot of unsold product if models and fashions change quickly)
- quality costs minimized (if a batch of product is of bad quality, you won't get stuck with a lot of inventory to downgrade, rework or scrap).

Most business gurus and companies rarely talk about the very real downsides to JIT.

- Increased vulnerability in uncertain times of strife - social (riots, strikes, etc) international (embargoes, conflicts, terror strikes, etc.) natural disasters. It could take weeks to restore a broken supply chain. Inventories could run out in days.
- Greatly increased dependence on transportation. You now have tens of times more shipments of smaller and smaller batches of product being shipped. This means more trucks out on the highways doing more trips, consuming more fuel.

Perhaps companies should take a second look at JIT? Maybe like the prudent man in Proverbs, they should set aside some inventories as buffers for a rainy day. Maybe also reduce the number of trips their truckers need to make.

JIT taken to its logical extreme means a flow of one unit at a time through the supply chain. Time to take a big step back from jittery JIT?

SumSam
April 2nd, 2008, 03:15 AM
Oh bother! I posted in the wrong forum! :doh! Dear Mods, pleaase move this to the Ecology & Economics forum. :hat

frodo82801
April 2nd, 2008, 09:32 AM
If the truckers truly went on strike, we'd find out how bad it could be. It's a great thing for optimization, but not so good for emergencies.

semo
April 2nd, 2008, 10:59 AM
I hadn't ever thought about the downsides until I read that thread. And you make good point too. It's much easier for me to see how scarcity could quickly hit in some areas.

frodo82801
April 2nd, 2008, 02:23 PM
This is a good reason to stockpile necessities. Any disruption could easily keep products off the shelves for an extended amount of time.

lmenningen
April 2nd, 2008, 02:34 PM
...Perhaps companies should take a second look at JIT?...Perhaps, but there is nothing in it for them to do so.

lilbitsyspider
April 2nd, 2008, 05:40 PM
This is a good reason to stockpile necessities. Any disruption could easily keep products off the shelves for an extended amount of time.

Yup.

truthseeker815
April 3rd, 2008, 01:29 AM
A post in this thread (http://www.rr-bb.com/showthread.php?t=40279) about American stores getting by with 3 days of inventory had me thinking about the possible downsides to the famous Just In Time system.

JIT and its related cousing Lean Manufacturing, are used by most companies in retail, logistics and manufacturing.JIT/Lean calls for zero or mimimal inventories. They regard inventories as a waste, and something to be eliminated or minimized where possible throughout the "supply chain", right from the parts vendors, manufacturers, shippers, importers down to the retail outlets. The benefits claimed are:

- Inventory carrying costs minimized (warehousing, interest costs)
- costs of obsolescence minimzed (you won't get stuck with a lot of unsold product if models and fashions change quickly)
- quality costs minimized (if a batch of product is of bad quality, you won't get stuck with a lot of inventory to downgrade, rework or scrap).

Most business gurus and companies rarely talk about the very real downsides to JIT.

- Increased vulnerability in uncertain times of strife - social (riots, strikes, etc) international (embargoes, conflicts, terror strikes, etc.) natural disasters. It could take weeks to restore a broken supply chain. Inventories could run out in days.
- Greatly increased dependence on transportation. You now have tens of times more shipments of smaller and smaller batches of product being shipped. This means more trucks out on the highways doing more trips, consuming more fuel.

Perhaps companies should take a second look at JIT? Maybe like the prudent man in Proverbs, they should set aside some inventories as buffers for a rainy day. Maybe also reduce the number of trips their truckers need to make.

JIT taken to its logical extreme means a flow of one unit at a time through the supply chain. Time to take a big step back from jittery JIT?

Good points,Sumsam.I'm very aware of this-I was in purchasing for an electronics/electrical distributor at what is called the "MRO" level(Maintenance & Repair Only) versus the manufacturing level-very similar to auto parts supply houses.My superiors were very stringent and I would get my hand slapped very frequently for just purchasing one too many of most items.It definitely increases the loads for the trucking industry.....

SumSam
April 3rd, 2008, 01:56 AM
Perhaps, but there is nothing in it for them to do so.

I'm not entirely sure. Broken supply chains mean they are just as vulnerable as the consumers they serve. Also consider the impact on prices as a fallout of disrupted supply chains. At some point the risk / benefit analysis of JIT Vs. buffer stocks has got to reverse direction, I'm guessing. At least it should in case of commodities.

A quick google search for "JIT downside" turned up...this thread as the top result! :doh! :pound This isn't a commonly discussed topic for sure!

Dreams of Rising
April 3rd, 2008, 10:40 AM
And people who believe in keeping a basic stockpile of food and the means to defend them are called "Survival Nuts"? PLEASE.

Here in Orlando back when we had hurricane Charlie and his pals - we were told that the average grocery store - even if open (power) - will be depleted withing 72 hours without resupply. I'd give it far less based on what I saw.

We do not have to live in FEAR, but we need to use that intellect which God has blessed us with. Squirrels store food. Even a tiny mouse will defend itself and its' young. Do not get so PC'd that you go hungry or are easy prey during times of social unrest.