Jubilee21
April 8th, 2008, 06:56 PM
Seem's the potential for more to go wrong is not so far off when it comes a lot...
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5676.htmlprint/
Britain and Electricity
Posted By Carl from Chicago On April 5, 2008 @ 4:23 pm In Energy & Power Generation | 30 Comments
There is a looming electricity crisis that is about to overtake the United States. While our demand for electricity continues to increase due to construction, computers (data centers take up a significant portion of electricity demand), and potentially even electric cars, essentially no new “base load” supply of electrical generation is being added to the market. We do get the occasional wind farm or solar or geothermal source of energy, and a bit of conservation is on the rise, but these tiny dents in supply and demand, respectively, don’t even begin to cover growth much less the fact that many electricity plants are aging and will face retirement in the future. Due to the long lead times involved with getting a new plant on line (at LEAST 5-10 years in the case of large base load coal or nuclear plants, best case), our problem is that we aren’t doing anything NOW to head off the crisis LATER, when we won’t have any options at all.
Recently I was in London and I noted a similar situation was emerging in that country. Unlike the US, where conservation measures are still haphazard and sporadic, London seemed to have “smart” meters installed in many hotels (like I noted in Italy) and the entire culture embraces the “concept” at least of saving energy.
As in the US, however, the situation in Britain is going to be desperate soon. This graph from the April 5, 2008 issue of the Economist shows in a great, simple diagram how the declining use of coal and nuclear power is going to cause an energy crisis in Britain. Britain, like the US, has an ample supply of coal and can import much more from reliable allies like Australia, and has been a pioneer of nuclear power technology and is quite capable of building and operating these plants. While Britain does have North Sea natural gas available, the supply is declining and has other uses (industrial, heating) beyond power generation.
The problem is that the NIMBY crowd in England is even fiercer than those of the US; while the chances of building any nuclear or coal plants in the US will fade if the Democrats take the White House in November, even the most liberal US Democrat seems like Attila the Hun compared to anyone in Europe when it comes to greenhouse gases and pollution.
Even today power is short in particular in London; the situation will grow more dire as the years go by and localized plants are decommissioned; it is unimaginable that new sources of serious generation will be built anywhere near London or the left would go bonkers. The likeliest courses of action is that over time businesses that aren’t forced to be localized (retail, financial services) will bolt London for other parts of the country where the power situation isn’t so terrible. Local businesses will likely start to rely more and more heavily on backup power as the grid becomes more unreliable (on peak days it can fail overall, but it is more likely to just become less reliable over the years).
I don’t know how people can go on consuming electricity and products that require electricity and just pretend that adding new generation isn’t an option; while conservation is useful and perhaps even some localized elements like solar can help they aren’t sufficient for a serious, first world economy unless rotating blackouts a la Nigeria are viewed as OK. Of the options, nuclear emits the least greenhouse gases and new, modern coal plants are quite efficient and emit far less noxious compounds than their predecessors. While these 2 options clearly are not without flaws, they have to be part of the solution else reliability will just crater over time and inefficient local solutions will have to jump to the front.
In speaking to others about this problem and setting aside the debate about peak oil, the data strongly suggests this 'can of worms' is coming to bear and we will be feeling the impact along with other problems in the not so far off future..
Anther updated discussion of events..
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=349&Itemid=91
Peak Oil Review -- April 7th, 2008
Written by Tom Whipple
Monday, 07 April 2008
1. Prices, Production and Exports
2. Electricity Shortages and Diesel
3. Rice, Inflation and Oil
4. Massachusetts Hosts a Meeting
5. Energy Briefs
1. Prices, Production and Exports
It was another week of volatility for oil prices as a potpourri of fundamentals, financial crisis, hearings, unemployment and a looming recession drove oil prices one way and then another. After losing $4 a barrel on Monday as speculators closed positions, prices recovered on Wednesday after the EIA reported that US gasoline stockpiles had fallen by 4.5 million barrels the previous week, twice what analysts had expected. On Friday, prices rose again to close out the week at $106 a barrel after the report that US jobs had declined for the third straight month, confirming fears that the US was headed for a recession. This time oil prices rose on bad economic news in expectation that there will be more interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and a flight to safe assets such as oil.
US gasoline prices rose to a record $3.30 on Friday and most analysts believe they will continue rising. The EIA is holding that average gasoline prices will peak at $3.50 later this spring, but many are predicting a spike to the vacinity of $4 a gallon.
In the wake of the inconclusive attack on Basra, Shiite cleric al-Sadr is calling for a million-man demonstration against the US “occupation” on Wednesday, the 5th anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. Some fear the demonstration could set off events destabilizing the government. In the meantime Iraq is still exporting oil from Basra at slightly below pre-attack levels.
OPEC reports March shipments were down about 85,000 b/d from February due to extensive maintenance and other problems in Nigeria that cut exports there to the lowest in five years. Of more interest was the report that Russia failed to increase its oil production for the third month in a row and the first quarter production was down by one percent from a year earlier. Moscow, however, is still predicting that production will grow by 1.7 percent this year, well below the 11 percent increase in 2003. Russin pipeline exports to Europe recovered to 4.23 million b/d in March, but many believe the surge was in anticipation of forrthcoming export taxs and that Moscow’s exports will soon drop.
2. Electricity Shortages and Diesel
Stories of current and imminent shortages of electric power are becoming more frequent each day. A combination of inadequate rain for hydro power, unaffordable oil and coal for thermal power, and rapidly increasing demand is leaving country after country with inadequate power for national grids.
It is becoming apparent that one of the unforeseen consequences of globalization is that there is simply not enough power being produced in the world to run the flood of inexpensive electric consumer goods – TVs, kitchen appliances, air conditioners -- that are pouring from the factories of Asia onto the world.
The increasingly frequent “rolling blackouts” that are appearing around the world unfortunately are killing “essential” systems – water pumps, hospitals, banking computers, factories, TV stations, and telephone exchanges – as well as the less-essential consumer devices.
While electric companies may eventually be able to make special arrangements to exempt organizations that are vital to the economy from blackouts, there are massive numbers of organizations around the world that are completely dependent on electricity to keep functioning. For these, the choice is generate their own electricity with their own generators or shut down.
What is developing is a new and potentially very large demand for gasoline and particularly diesel fuel as the national power grids fall further and further behind in their ability to keep up with demand for electricity. Higher prices and shortages are clearly in store as more and more Chinese-made small and medium sized electric generators come into service around the world.
3. Rice, Inflation and Oil
Rice prices increased by 50 percent in the last two weeks to an all-time high as importing countries scrambled to hold off social unrest by securing supplies from the few exporters still willing to sell. As the staple food for 3 billion people, 33 countries are facing unrest as the price of food and energy becomes unaffordable.
There are multiple reasons behind the sudden price increase ranging from weather-related poor harvests, hoarding, and world-wide inflationary pressures resulting from high energy costs to the financial crisis. Major rice exporters such as India, China, and Vietnam have already curtailed or stopped exports to hold down domestic prices.
Among the hardest hit countries so far have been Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Pakistan where millions now face seriously restricted diets.
Even rich oil states are facing problems. Nigeria is one of the world’s largest importers of rice and Kuwait is now shut off from the Indian rice that is the staple food for most of the 1.3 million foreigners working in the country. Even the Saudis have removed the import duties on imported food. In Pakistan 80 million people are estimated to be at risk of not receiving sufficient food.
This situation is too complex to foresee future developments. If it gets worse, widespread food riots could topple governments. If millions are faced with starvation, pressure to stop production of biofuels will increase. Leverage of food exporting nations in world affairs will increase. (more)
Note: #5 of this article is interesting with regard to events transpiring around the world.
One thing these articles got me wondering about was the "what if's"..as in what if we see a huge policy change in all of the environmental laws because this becomes the next crisis, and in fact that is the goal down the road..
"What if"?...the powers that be foresaw the effect of the environmental policies ultimately being a disaster and putting the squeeze on the world food supplies, a created crisis where all of these powers and laws were passed during it to put the power brokers into position,and then...global warming was just a set up to get us to this situation and enable the domino's to be lined up so they would fall precisely the way they were intended..
( I know..a lot of what ifs..??? but it sure is interesting in how its being played out on almost a literal biblical level)
"What if?"..the end result is we turn around and become a major food producing nation and our food supplies become the leverage as in "corn won't grow in sand."
In effect it would put us in the proverbial 'catbird seat' but the thing is we wouldn't own any of this..it would have been transfered to the ones who set the ball in motion and why the markets and banks were manipulated as they were....
it was never about anything but "the oil and the wheat":twitch ='s food and energy and all the arrow's keep pointing to how 2008 was lined up as the year for all of these problems to hit the proverbial fan with a time frame of sorts of deadlines all the problems must be fixed becasue the fate of the world is at stake ( as in the urgent messages being scrolled over the headlines)..
Sure point's to getting closer to midnight and time for someone to show up and 'save the world" now doesn't it? Nor do I mean "Superman" either!!!
Maybe this is what we all are being deeply convicted of in our own ways..and can feel it in our souls as well as our bones?:candle
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/5676.htmlprint/
Britain and Electricity
Posted By Carl from Chicago On April 5, 2008 @ 4:23 pm In Energy & Power Generation | 30 Comments
There is a looming electricity crisis that is about to overtake the United States. While our demand for electricity continues to increase due to construction, computers (data centers take up a significant portion of electricity demand), and potentially even electric cars, essentially no new “base load” supply of electrical generation is being added to the market. We do get the occasional wind farm or solar or geothermal source of energy, and a bit of conservation is on the rise, but these tiny dents in supply and demand, respectively, don’t even begin to cover growth much less the fact that many electricity plants are aging and will face retirement in the future. Due to the long lead times involved with getting a new plant on line (at LEAST 5-10 years in the case of large base load coal or nuclear plants, best case), our problem is that we aren’t doing anything NOW to head off the crisis LATER, when we won’t have any options at all.
Recently I was in London and I noted a similar situation was emerging in that country. Unlike the US, where conservation measures are still haphazard and sporadic, London seemed to have “smart” meters installed in many hotels (like I noted in Italy) and the entire culture embraces the “concept” at least of saving energy.
As in the US, however, the situation in Britain is going to be desperate soon. This graph from the April 5, 2008 issue of the Economist shows in a great, simple diagram how the declining use of coal and nuclear power is going to cause an energy crisis in Britain. Britain, like the US, has an ample supply of coal and can import much more from reliable allies like Australia, and has been a pioneer of nuclear power technology and is quite capable of building and operating these plants. While Britain does have North Sea natural gas available, the supply is declining and has other uses (industrial, heating) beyond power generation.
The problem is that the NIMBY crowd in England is even fiercer than those of the US; while the chances of building any nuclear or coal plants in the US will fade if the Democrats take the White House in November, even the most liberal US Democrat seems like Attila the Hun compared to anyone in Europe when it comes to greenhouse gases and pollution.
Even today power is short in particular in London; the situation will grow more dire as the years go by and localized plants are decommissioned; it is unimaginable that new sources of serious generation will be built anywhere near London or the left would go bonkers. The likeliest courses of action is that over time businesses that aren’t forced to be localized (retail, financial services) will bolt London for other parts of the country where the power situation isn’t so terrible. Local businesses will likely start to rely more and more heavily on backup power as the grid becomes more unreliable (on peak days it can fail overall, but it is more likely to just become less reliable over the years).
I don’t know how people can go on consuming electricity and products that require electricity and just pretend that adding new generation isn’t an option; while conservation is useful and perhaps even some localized elements like solar can help they aren’t sufficient for a serious, first world economy unless rotating blackouts a la Nigeria are viewed as OK. Of the options, nuclear emits the least greenhouse gases and new, modern coal plants are quite efficient and emit far less noxious compounds than their predecessors. While these 2 options clearly are not without flaws, they have to be part of the solution else reliability will just crater over time and inefficient local solutions will have to jump to the front.
In speaking to others about this problem and setting aside the debate about peak oil, the data strongly suggests this 'can of worms' is coming to bear and we will be feeling the impact along with other problems in the not so far off future..
Anther updated discussion of events..
http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=349&Itemid=91
Peak Oil Review -- April 7th, 2008
Written by Tom Whipple
Monday, 07 April 2008
1. Prices, Production and Exports
2. Electricity Shortages and Diesel
3. Rice, Inflation and Oil
4. Massachusetts Hosts a Meeting
5. Energy Briefs
1. Prices, Production and Exports
It was another week of volatility for oil prices as a potpourri of fundamentals, financial crisis, hearings, unemployment and a looming recession drove oil prices one way and then another. After losing $4 a barrel on Monday as speculators closed positions, prices recovered on Wednesday after the EIA reported that US gasoline stockpiles had fallen by 4.5 million barrels the previous week, twice what analysts had expected. On Friday, prices rose again to close out the week at $106 a barrel after the report that US jobs had declined for the third straight month, confirming fears that the US was headed for a recession. This time oil prices rose on bad economic news in expectation that there will be more interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and a flight to safe assets such as oil.
US gasoline prices rose to a record $3.30 on Friday and most analysts believe they will continue rising. The EIA is holding that average gasoline prices will peak at $3.50 later this spring, but many are predicting a spike to the vacinity of $4 a gallon.
In the wake of the inconclusive attack on Basra, Shiite cleric al-Sadr is calling for a million-man demonstration against the US “occupation” on Wednesday, the 5th anniversary of the fall of Baghdad. Some fear the demonstration could set off events destabilizing the government. In the meantime Iraq is still exporting oil from Basra at slightly below pre-attack levels.
OPEC reports March shipments were down about 85,000 b/d from February due to extensive maintenance and other problems in Nigeria that cut exports there to the lowest in five years. Of more interest was the report that Russia failed to increase its oil production for the third month in a row and the first quarter production was down by one percent from a year earlier. Moscow, however, is still predicting that production will grow by 1.7 percent this year, well below the 11 percent increase in 2003. Russin pipeline exports to Europe recovered to 4.23 million b/d in March, but many believe the surge was in anticipation of forrthcoming export taxs and that Moscow’s exports will soon drop.
2. Electricity Shortages and Diesel
Stories of current and imminent shortages of electric power are becoming more frequent each day. A combination of inadequate rain for hydro power, unaffordable oil and coal for thermal power, and rapidly increasing demand is leaving country after country with inadequate power for national grids.
It is becoming apparent that one of the unforeseen consequences of globalization is that there is simply not enough power being produced in the world to run the flood of inexpensive electric consumer goods – TVs, kitchen appliances, air conditioners -- that are pouring from the factories of Asia onto the world.
The increasingly frequent “rolling blackouts” that are appearing around the world unfortunately are killing “essential” systems – water pumps, hospitals, banking computers, factories, TV stations, and telephone exchanges – as well as the less-essential consumer devices.
While electric companies may eventually be able to make special arrangements to exempt organizations that are vital to the economy from blackouts, there are massive numbers of organizations around the world that are completely dependent on electricity to keep functioning. For these, the choice is generate their own electricity with their own generators or shut down.
What is developing is a new and potentially very large demand for gasoline and particularly diesel fuel as the national power grids fall further and further behind in their ability to keep up with demand for electricity. Higher prices and shortages are clearly in store as more and more Chinese-made small and medium sized electric generators come into service around the world.
3. Rice, Inflation and Oil
Rice prices increased by 50 percent in the last two weeks to an all-time high as importing countries scrambled to hold off social unrest by securing supplies from the few exporters still willing to sell. As the staple food for 3 billion people, 33 countries are facing unrest as the price of food and energy becomes unaffordable.
There are multiple reasons behind the sudden price increase ranging from weather-related poor harvests, hoarding, and world-wide inflationary pressures resulting from high energy costs to the financial crisis. Major rice exporters such as India, China, and Vietnam have already curtailed or stopped exports to hold down domestic prices.
Among the hardest hit countries so far have been Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Pakistan where millions now face seriously restricted diets.
Even rich oil states are facing problems. Nigeria is one of the world’s largest importers of rice and Kuwait is now shut off from the Indian rice that is the staple food for most of the 1.3 million foreigners working in the country. Even the Saudis have removed the import duties on imported food. In Pakistan 80 million people are estimated to be at risk of not receiving sufficient food.
This situation is too complex to foresee future developments. If it gets worse, widespread food riots could topple governments. If millions are faced with starvation, pressure to stop production of biofuels will increase. Leverage of food exporting nations in world affairs will increase. (more)
Note: #5 of this article is interesting with regard to events transpiring around the world.
One thing these articles got me wondering about was the "what if's"..as in what if we see a huge policy change in all of the environmental laws because this becomes the next crisis, and in fact that is the goal down the road..
"What if"?...the powers that be foresaw the effect of the environmental policies ultimately being a disaster and putting the squeeze on the world food supplies, a created crisis where all of these powers and laws were passed during it to put the power brokers into position,and then...global warming was just a set up to get us to this situation and enable the domino's to be lined up so they would fall precisely the way they were intended..
( I know..a lot of what ifs..??? but it sure is interesting in how its being played out on almost a literal biblical level)
"What if?"..the end result is we turn around and become a major food producing nation and our food supplies become the leverage as in "corn won't grow in sand."
In effect it would put us in the proverbial 'catbird seat' but the thing is we wouldn't own any of this..it would have been transfered to the ones who set the ball in motion and why the markets and banks were manipulated as they were....
it was never about anything but "the oil and the wheat":twitch ='s food and energy and all the arrow's keep pointing to how 2008 was lined up as the year for all of these problems to hit the proverbial fan with a time frame of sorts of deadlines all the problems must be fixed becasue the fate of the world is at stake ( as in the urgent messages being scrolled over the headlines)..
Sure point's to getting closer to midnight and time for someone to show up and 'save the world" now doesn't it? Nor do I mean "Superman" either!!!
Maybe this is what we all are being deeply convicted of in our own ways..and can feel it in our souls as well as our bones?:candle