Peak Oil

[Issachar]

I started a separate thread for this matter because it is showing up in several different threads. It is a topic I've been interested in for around 5 or 6 years. A friend of mine and I tried to bring it up on another board but no one believed it and some dogged us for it. I'm glad to see it coming up here. I guess it took oil being well over $100/bl. to get some attention. As has been said in some other threads, "peak oil" is not a sky-is-falling scenerio where the world is running out of oil. What it MAY be running out of is easily accessed oil - read, cheap oil. I know that in at least Saudi Arabia, for a few years now, they've been pumping sea water into the wells to float the oil up so it can be accessed. Not all of it, but in some areas.

This is a site I've been following .....

http://www.peakoil.net/

Issachar

[Issachar]

Dated May 20, 2008

http://www.energybulletin.net/44519.html

Issachar

[jds6958]

ooooohhh...good thread...enjoying it so far...

[Issachar]

Scroll down a short way to:

U.S. Oil Production and Reserves

at http://greatchange.org/ov-korpela,US_and_world_depletion.html

You may want to book mark it and read the whole thing over time as it is lengthy, but worth the read.

The charts say a lot.

Issachar

[SumSam]

Oil prices may 'super-spike' to $US200 (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23658646-5005200,00.html)



Ed Welsch and Lananh Nguyen | May 07, 2008

TIGHTENING supplies of crude oil make it increasingly likely that prices will "super-spike" to between $US150 and $US200 a barrel within the next six to 24 months, Goldman Sachs said.

"We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent and resulting in needed demand rationing" in the West and especially in the United States, a team of Goldman analysts led by Arjun Murti told clients.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery climbed $US1.87, or 1.6 per cent, to settle at $US121.84 a barrel in New York overnight - after rising as high as $US122.73

Goldman believes that investors may benefit from the upward trend in oil prices by putting their money in integrated oil companies, petroleum exploration and production companies, oil servicers and drillers, and pipeline companies.

The firm is less bullish on refiners, which may see squeezed US petrol margins, and biofuels, especially corn-based ethanol companies, which the firm believes haven't changed the global oil supply picture much while sharply pushing up agricultural commodity prices.

Gold also may benefit if energy and commodity prices rise, the firm said.

Mr Murti sees two scenarios for rising crude prices: either a longer, gradual rally in prices or a sharp, sudden spike. Under the first scenario, the price of benchmark US crude would rise from $US108 a barrel in 2008 to $US120 by 2010, before dropping to a "normalised oil price" of $US75 a barrel in 2012.

Under the super-spike scenario, spot prices would hit $US125 in 2008 and peak at $US200 in 2009 before dropping sharply again in subsequent years to the normalised oil price as oil users rapidly change their habits in the face of extreme prices.

[robinhoooood]

I am happy to see this as a thread on here finally... and no one yet calling anyone crazy haha... Anyway, here are a few more websites to get acquainted with...

www.theoildrum.com (Excellent source of material... lots of good posts here)

www.peakoil.com

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net (certainly a bit more doomer, but a lot of good news articles in the breaking news section... also the homepage gives a good synopsis of peak oil.

Basically... we are not running out of oil... We simply cannot pump enough daily to meet the rising demand for oil... there is plenty of oil shale out there and things like this.. but the flow rates are much lower and the energy return for energy invested is a much lower ratio...

[stonewallfan]

Thanks for info everyone. I had heard of this topic in the past and saw the controversy associated with it. Saw the movie Oil Storm produced by FX (they should reair the thing) in 05 then the Hurricane Katrina disaster that fall. See what is happening today and I have become the student of oil and energy because of the things I see happening. It is a topic that is getting more steam to it. Glenn Beck had guest last nite that say we are seeing the effects of it today. Including Ben Stein. Ben Stein said if they do not correct it today it will be like Mad Max in 10 years. People here will be at war with one another over oil. Glenn Beck said it would be war with China or India fighting to get the supply.

The part that is absolutely maddness is there is technology to turn coal into oil. We are the sultan of coal. It was coal that destroyed The Third Reich. Coal that sunk the Japanese fleets in WWII. Coal that saved Europe from the throws of trench warfare in WWI. Coal to oil would rid the US of this. My $.02 worth I guess. Anywho....God is working His redemptive plan I believe this situation was part of His plan for the end time. It is no coincedence that Israel just turned 60. Iran is now a growing mennace. EU is expanding. The church is caught up in feel good messages about prosperity and just being happy. I believe time is at hand for our Redemer to call us up!

[Issachar]

Watch this couple minute video.

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080521145247.aspx

Issachar

[Issachar]

I have used this chart 40 times here, and what is so hard to understand about this chart?
In 1956, we were here, and he predicted in 1970 we would be here. And then he predicted, in spite of enhanced oil recovery, in spite of the best discovery techniques and modeling in the world, in spite of drilling more oil wells than the rest of the world put together, we are still producing in the lower 48 way less than half of the oil than we produced in 1970. What is so hard to understand about this?
And the same man who predicted that predicted that the world would be peaking in oil production about now. Well, you know, it is hard for me to understand why with this knowledge that the world wouldn't have said, gee, we really ought to be doing something because this oil is not going to last forever.
Mr. Speaker, it was probably 40 years ago, maybe it is because of the scientist in me, that I started asking myself that question. I looked around the world and there was rock and stones and trees and grass, and I said, you know, oil has to be finite. There has to be a finite amount, and how much is there. And when should I start being concerned about the amount of oil that is there. Is it a year, 10 years, 100 years? Maybe it is a thousand years. But at some point I knew we would be where we are today.
Again, Mr. Speaker, what is so hard to understand about this chart? And why has there been denial worldwide, just forget it, don't think about it, ignore it? Ignoring it won't make it go away. more (http://www.peakoil.net/headline-news/if-the-world-had-been-listening-to-aspo-we-would-not-have-110-oil-today): At the link, do a CTRL F and type in ANWR. Read what is there if you don't have time to read the whole article.

Issachar

[Issachar]

IEA worried about oil supplies, prepares forecast
Thursday May 22, 3:33 pm ET
By Angela Charlton, Associated Press Writer
International Energy Agency worried about oil supplies, predicts 'new world energy order'

PARIS (AP) -- A leading global energy monitor fears there may not be enough oil to slake the world's thirst -- and is preparing a landmark forecast that could reverberate through the global economy even as major companies announce fuel-related cutbacks.

The International Energy Agency is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields in a first-of-its-kind study of world oil supply, chief economist Fatih Birol said.

"We are entering a new world energy order, " Birol told The Associated Press.

Market analysts call the Paris-based IEA the world's most reliable independent source of oil information and welcomed its decision to undertake a deep study of oil supplies. more (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080522/international_energy_agency_oil_supply.html)

Issachar