Jubilee21
June 17th, 2008, 12:44 PM
Some perspectives..
The USDA, which is taking a survey of farmers now, will update its corn acreage estimate on June 30. Prior to the devastating storms this week, "We know the crop had lost some potential," said USDA grains analyst Jerry Norton.
Fallout from the storm poses risks to the global corn market. The U.S., by far, is the world's largest exporter of corn. On the upside, corn production in China, Russia, and the Ukraine has gone well so far this year.
One probability: Rationing of already dwindling supplies. U.S. corn inventories already are forecasted to end the 2008 growing season at their lowest level since 1995, the USDA says.
"It will be tighter suppliers for the next 15 months," said corn farmer Keith Bolin, of Manlius, Ill., who also is president of the American Corn Growers Association. "We'll have to ration crops till September 2009."
Such a move would slow the release of corn to the marketplace in a bid to ensure supplies last through the next harvest. But it is also likely to have a prompt impact on already soaring corn futures contracts, driving them even higher.
How A Midwest Flood Can Drag Down A Nation
by SlyDi
Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:59:15 PM PDT
As the workweek begins tomorrow, every Interstate Highway and railroad across Iowa is closed by flooding. Wisconsin isn't faring much better, with I-94 across the state flooded out along with one of the three remaining cross state railroads. Truckers are having to take long, roundabout routes burning up $5 a gallon diesel fuel to make hopelessly late deliveries. The busiest railroad in America, Union Pacific's transcontinental main line across Iowa, Is shut down by high water, with trains backed up as far as Nevada. UP is even "embargoing" destinations affected by the flooding- essentially telling shippers not to send freight that way because it'll merely clog up their system. Despite the wider and deeper rivers, things aren't moving much on the water either- barge tows are tied up on 200 miles of the busiest stretch of the upper Mississippi from Muscatine to St.Louis as fast moving flood waters make safe navigation impossible.
Let's go back to the 70s... The midwest was still served by a thick web of railroads, and if the mainline was flooded out there were plenty of branch lines to detour on. The Interstate System was pretty much complete, but was still used at less than capacity so you could actually drive the speed limit. Back then I drove truck for Continental Baking, a typical big company of the era. We had bakeries every couple hundred miles, with 70 of them spread around the country. In Iowa alone we had bakeries in Davenport, Sioux City, and Waterloo, and 3 in Chicago, Kansas City, Omaha, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Rochester, and St.Louis in surrounding states. Look at a map of Iowa, and you'll find we had a bakery within 3 hours drive by truck from anywhere in Iowa. Every bakery was quite self sufficent- our engineers could make parts for our machinery if they had too, and their parts stock would put a decent hardware store's to shame. We jammed the basement of the bakery with ingredients, had a huge bulk flour tank to boot, a couple more boxcars of flour sitting in the siding a mile away, and truckloads more perishable ingredients at the locker plant a few blocks away. If we somehow managed to run out of all that, the Pillsbury "A" mill was but a mile away along with many other suppliers. Most of our bakeries baked just a single 8 hour day, and our drivers worked an 8 hour shift. In the rare occasion when the bakery was down for more than an hour of so, other bakeries ran a little overtime and baked for them. Being scheduled for an 8 hour day when we legally could work 15 hours, we drivers had ample time to make an extra trip to another bakery or make a long detour due to closed roads. That was standard operating procedure back then in american business- an auto plant didn't shut down because a trailer load of parts was on it's side in a ditch 500 miles away.
Back to this century and the brave new world of "just in time" logistics, "lean manufacturing", and the ever popular "eliminating excess capacity". Continental Baking has merged with Interstate Bakeries, but the only bakery they have left in Iowa is in Waterloo- it's shut down by the flooding and who knows when it'll be back up. Only 4 of those 9 bakeries in surrounding states are still baking.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/15/205142/321/480/536490
RAIL LINES UNDER WATER
Major rail lines have been rerouting shipments. The flooding prompted Union Pacific Corp, the No. 1 U.S. railroad, to enact force majeure provisions of contracts which allow shippers to extend deadlines for cargo delivery due to events beyond their control such as natural disasters.
Several major rail lines are out of service at No. 2 U.S. railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp, spokesman Steve Forsberg said.
The railroad's east-west line across southern Iowa and north-south through St. Louis are out of service. About 50 to 60 trains a day are affected.
Forsberg said the railroad did not have an estimate yet for how long the lines will be out of service because in places the rivers have yet to crest.
"Their equipment is completely under water," said a grain trader at an elevator that ships corn and soybeans by rail. "They have no idea if it will work -- or even if it's still there. Some of these bridges may not be structurally sound anymore. It's going to be a mess for months."
The Mississippi River at St. Louis is forecast to crest on the evening of June 21 at 39 feet, making it the 10th or 11th worst flood at that location, said Army Corps spokesman Alan Dooley. The worst flood occurred in 1993 when the river crested at nearly 50 feet.
"We are re-routing as much traffic as we can," Forsberg said. "But there are areas here we simply can't get through to customers on those lines."
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?...29515920080616
Feds: 27 levees could overflow if sandbags failAP foreign
Tuesday June 17 2008 By EILEEN SULLIVAN
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The federal government predicts that 27 levees could potentially overflow along the Mississippi River if the weather forecast is on the mark and a massive sandbagging effort fails to raise the level of the levees, according to a map obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
Officials are placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees along the river in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri to prevent overflowing. There is no way to predict whether these levees will break, said Ron Fournier, a spokesman with the Army Corps of Engineers in Iowa. ``That's a crystal ball that nobody has,'' he told the AP.
The levees in New Orleans broke during Hurricane Katrina, causing catastrophic flooding.
Record-breaking storms and flooding across six states this month continue to force thousands of people to evacuate and seek shelter. Since June 6, there have been 22 deaths, 85 injuries and more than 26,000 power outages because of the storms and flooding, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The disasters are not as catastrophic as 2005's Hurricane Katrina, when at least 1,600 people were killed.
The Army Corps of Engineers looks at the latest weather forecasts and creates ``battle maps'' for levee engineers that show how many levees could overflow without what Fournier calls a ``big flood fight effort.'' The flood fight entails placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees to make them higher.
The information, which the Army Corps shares regularly with state and local officials, changes constantly. Bret Vorhees, a spokesman for the Iowa Emergency Management and Homeland Security agency, said his office relies on these updates. ``The weather can be unpredictable. It's a bit of an art with a science with their projections,'' he said.
As of Monday evening, 27 levees have a potential of overflowing - 20 of those a ``high potential'' - according to the Army Corps. Six levees have already overflowed in the past three days: two in Iowa and four in Missouri.
In most instances, overflowing is just problematic, much like when you fill your bathtub with too much water, says Larry Roth, the deputy executive director of the American Society of Civil Engineers.
But because the current flooding is so rare - many are calling it a one-in-500-years flood - the entire levee system will be stressed, he said.
Still, Roth said, if the federal government and local officials are able to get the sandbags in place and identify potential weak areas along the levees, ``then there's maybe a very good chance to provide flood protection for the people that live along the river.''
Some 251 miles of the Mississippi River have been closed. That doesn't officially shut down the river, said U.S. Geological Survey national flood specialist Bob Holmes, but it effectively shuts down barge traffic.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7590328
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/06/16/iowa.floods/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
Police set up checkpoints to keep people away from the affected neighborhoods, deemed unsafe after weeks of heavy rain forced the Cedar River from its banks, leaving much of Iowa's second-largest city underwater. See photos of the flooding »
Evacuees waited in line at the checkpoints Sunday to receive special wristbands that allowed them to go home and gather their belongings. Authorities set a curfew and asked the residents to stay out of the neighborhoods between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m., so people stuffed what they could into plastic bags and returned to the checkpoints.
One resident, however, grew angry when he was not allowed to pass a checkpoint Monday, according to a news release from the Cedar Rapids Police Department.
After being denied re-entry to a flooded neighborhood, Rick Blazek, 53, returned to his vehicle as a state trooper used his police vehicle to block the checkpoint, according to the news release.
"Blazek drove his vehicle toward the state trooper and struck the state trooper three times with his vehicle," the release said.
Police told Blazek to get out of his vehicle, and when he refused, "the driver's window was broken out because the doors were locked and Blazek was removed from his vehicle," according to the release.
The trooper was not injured. Blazek, who was arrested and charged with assault on a peace officer with a deadly weapon, could not be immediately reached for comment.
Residents have been getting angry with the authorities who are keeping them from their homes, she said, but she understands safety comes first.
"They have Red Cross, police department, fire department, and the people who they brought in -- the Marines and stuff, the National Guard -- have been excellent," she said. "They are keeping us out of our homes even though we're getting upset with them. We have no right because they're trying to protect us."
Local authorities expect to release a list of areas that are safe by Monday afternoon, with the hope that people can begin returning to their homes Tuesday, Brown said.
About 36,000 Iowans were evacuated because of statewide flooding, 24,000 of them in Cedar Rapids. The massive flooding has overwhelmed the city -- which is in a 500-year flood plain, an area the federal government says has less than a 0.2 percent chance of flooding. Watch residents begin the cleanup process »
"It's been compared to a 3,000-year flood," Cedar Rapids police Detective Brad Novak said. "So something with that rarity of an event, there is no playbook to go by."
Praise God, there has not been the loss of life from this flood that we saw from Katrina..but on the other side of the coin..the sheer scale of this event is very significant in terms of its effects over the next 18 months..for the local communities, this state, our Nation and the World in respect to much.
One thing that caught my attention was the human nature factor..
That folks are so frustrated and mad about getting back to their homes..to try to salvage items, that they would turn upon the local law enforcement folks and rescue responder teams actually there to try to protect them.
Someone used the phrase, "stop or I will have to shoot you for your own protection" while discussing the engagement of the police with the man trying to use his vehicle as a weapon to break through the baracades..
Folks are becoming very restless and concerned that the prices and shortages mean they had better run out and stock up on specific food items to brace themselves for the ripple effects.. a quiet 'panic' seems to be settling in :thinking
The thing is I can understand so much of this from legitimate concerns on both sides of the fence.. yet I am also seeing the "Katrina Mentality" creep in and showing up in society at large, and from those who don't live along side of the Mississippi in this Nation..
Thoughts? As a Christian community, where is the line that should not be crossed here as these events play themselves out in future months and what seperates it from the one that should be given the reality that these problems are very real and will affect our lives...:idunno
Seem's to me IMHO..that they lines are becoming very "gray" depending on which side one is standing on..
For instance, should the law enforcement have the right to remove you from your home or keep you from returning to it if you chose to accept the risks, yet if they do not, should they be "blamed" for failure to protect you from "yourself"?:scratch
The USDA, which is taking a survey of farmers now, will update its corn acreage estimate on June 30. Prior to the devastating storms this week, "We know the crop had lost some potential," said USDA grains analyst Jerry Norton.
Fallout from the storm poses risks to the global corn market. The U.S., by far, is the world's largest exporter of corn. On the upside, corn production in China, Russia, and the Ukraine has gone well so far this year.
One probability: Rationing of already dwindling supplies. U.S. corn inventories already are forecasted to end the 2008 growing season at their lowest level since 1995, the USDA says.
"It will be tighter suppliers for the next 15 months," said corn farmer Keith Bolin, of Manlius, Ill., who also is president of the American Corn Growers Association. "We'll have to ration crops till September 2009."
Such a move would slow the release of corn to the marketplace in a bid to ensure supplies last through the next harvest. But it is also likely to have a prompt impact on already soaring corn futures contracts, driving them even higher.
How A Midwest Flood Can Drag Down A Nation
by SlyDi
Sun Jun 15, 2008 at 07:59:15 PM PDT
As the workweek begins tomorrow, every Interstate Highway and railroad across Iowa is closed by flooding. Wisconsin isn't faring much better, with I-94 across the state flooded out along with one of the three remaining cross state railroads. Truckers are having to take long, roundabout routes burning up $5 a gallon diesel fuel to make hopelessly late deliveries. The busiest railroad in America, Union Pacific's transcontinental main line across Iowa, Is shut down by high water, with trains backed up as far as Nevada. UP is even "embargoing" destinations affected by the flooding- essentially telling shippers not to send freight that way because it'll merely clog up their system. Despite the wider and deeper rivers, things aren't moving much on the water either- barge tows are tied up on 200 miles of the busiest stretch of the upper Mississippi from Muscatine to St.Louis as fast moving flood waters make safe navigation impossible.
Let's go back to the 70s... The midwest was still served by a thick web of railroads, and if the mainline was flooded out there were plenty of branch lines to detour on. The Interstate System was pretty much complete, but was still used at less than capacity so you could actually drive the speed limit. Back then I drove truck for Continental Baking, a typical big company of the era. We had bakeries every couple hundred miles, with 70 of them spread around the country. In Iowa alone we had bakeries in Davenport, Sioux City, and Waterloo, and 3 in Chicago, Kansas City, Omaha, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Rochester, and St.Louis in surrounding states. Look at a map of Iowa, and you'll find we had a bakery within 3 hours drive by truck from anywhere in Iowa. Every bakery was quite self sufficent- our engineers could make parts for our machinery if they had too, and their parts stock would put a decent hardware store's to shame. We jammed the basement of the bakery with ingredients, had a huge bulk flour tank to boot, a couple more boxcars of flour sitting in the siding a mile away, and truckloads more perishable ingredients at the locker plant a few blocks away. If we somehow managed to run out of all that, the Pillsbury "A" mill was but a mile away along with many other suppliers. Most of our bakeries baked just a single 8 hour day, and our drivers worked an 8 hour shift. In the rare occasion when the bakery was down for more than an hour of so, other bakeries ran a little overtime and baked for them. Being scheduled for an 8 hour day when we legally could work 15 hours, we drivers had ample time to make an extra trip to another bakery or make a long detour due to closed roads. That was standard operating procedure back then in american business- an auto plant didn't shut down because a trailer load of parts was on it's side in a ditch 500 miles away.
Back to this century and the brave new world of "just in time" logistics, "lean manufacturing", and the ever popular "eliminating excess capacity". Continental Baking has merged with Interstate Bakeries, but the only bakery they have left in Iowa is in Waterloo- it's shut down by the flooding and who knows when it'll be back up. Only 4 of those 9 bakeries in surrounding states are still baking.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/15/205142/321/480/536490
RAIL LINES UNDER WATER
Major rail lines have been rerouting shipments. The flooding prompted Union Pacific Corp, the No. 1 U.S. railroad, to enact force majeure provisions of contracts which allow shippers to extend deadlines for cargo delivery due to events beyond their control such as natural disasters.
Several major rail lines are out of service at No. 2 U.S. railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp, spokesman Steve Forsberg said.
The railroad's east-west line across southern Iowa and north-south through St. Louis are out of service. About 50 to 60 trains a day are affected.
Forsberg said the railroad did not have an estimate yet for how long the lines will be out of service because in places the rivers have yet to crest.
"Their equipment is completely under water," said a grain trader at an elevator that ships corn and soybeans by rail. "They have no idea if it will work -- or even if it's still there. Some of these bridges may not be structurally sound anymore. It's going to be a mess for months."
The Mississippi River at St. Louis is forecast to crest on the evening of June 21 at 39 feet, making it the 10th or 11th worst flood at that location, said Army Corps spokesman Alan Dooley. The worst flood occurred in 1993 when the river crested at nearly 50 feet.
"We are re-routing as much traffic as we can," Forsberg said. "But there are areas here we simply can't get through to customers on those lines."
http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?...29515920080616
Feds: 27 levees could overflow if sandbags failAP foreign
Tuesday June 17 2008 By EILEEN SULLIVAN
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The federal government predicts that 27 levees could potentially overflow along the Mississippi River if the weather forecast is on the mark and a massive sandbagging effort fails to raise the level of the levees, according to a map obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
Officials are placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees along the river in Illinois, Iowa and Missouri to prevent overflowing. There is no way to predict whether these levees will break, said Ron Fournier, a spokesman with the Army Corps of Engineers in Iowa. ``That's a crystal ball that nobody has,'' he told the AP.
The levees in New Orleans broke during Hurricane Katrina, causing catastrophic flooding.
Record-breaking storms and flooding across six states this month continue to force thousands of people to evacuate and seek shelter. Since June 6, there have been 22 deaths, 85 injuries and more than 26,000 power outages because of the storms and flooding, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The disasters are not as catastrophic as 2005's Hurricane Katrina, when at least 1,600 people were killed.
The Army Corps of Engineers looks at the latest weather forecasts and creates ``battle maps'' for levee engineers that show how many levees could overflow without what Fournier calls a ``big flood fight effort.'' The flood fight entails placing millions of sandbags on top of the levees to make them higher.
The information, which the Army Corps shares regularly with state and local officials, changes constantly. Bret Vorhees, a spokesman for the Iowa Emergency Management and Homeland Security agency, said his office relies on these updates. ``The weather can be unpredictable. It's a bit of an art with a science with their projections,'' he said.
As of Monday evening, 27 levees have a potential of overflowing - 20 of those a ``high potential'' - according to the Army Corps. Six levees have already overflowed in the past three days: two in Iowa and four in Missouri.
In most instances, overflowing is just problematic, much like when you fill your bathtub with too much water, says Larry Roth, the deputy executive director of the American Society of Civil Engineers.
But because the current flooding is so rare - many are calling it a one-in-500-years flood - the entire levee system will be stressed, he said.
Still, Roth said, if the federal government and local officials are able to get the sandbags in place and identify potential weak areas along the levees, ``then there's maybe a very good chance to provide flood protection for the people that live along the river.''
Some 251 miles of the Mississippi River have been closed. That doesn't officially shut down the river, said U.S. Geological Survey national flood specialist Bob Holmes, but it effectively shuts down barge traffic.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/7590328
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/06/16/iowa.floods/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
Police set up checkpoints to keep people away from the affected neighborhoods, deemed unsafe after weeks of heavy rain forced the Cedar River from its banks, leaving much of Iowa's second-largest city underwater. See photos of the flooding »
Evacuees waited in line at the checkpoints Sunday to receive special wristbands that allowed them to go home and gather their belongings. Authorities set a curfew and asked the residents to stay out of the neighborhoods between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m., so people stuffed what they could into plastic bags and returned to the checkpoints.
One resident, however, grew angry when he was not allowed to pass a checkpoint Monday, according to a news release from the Cedar Rapids Police Department.
After being denied re-entry to a flooded neighborhood, Rick Blazek, 53, returned to his vehicle as a state trooper used his police vehicle to block the checkpoint, according to the news release.
"Blazek drove his vehicle toward the state trooper and struck the state trooper three times with his vehicle," the release said.
Police told Blazek to get out of his vehicle, and when he refused, "the driver's window was broken out because the doors were locked and Blazek was removed from his vehicle," according to the release.
The trooper was not injured. Blazek, who was arrested and charged with assault on a peace officer with a deadly weapon, could not be immediately reached for comment.
Residents have been getting angry with the authorities who are keeping them from their homes, she said, but she understands safety comes first.
"They have Red Cross, police department, fire department, and the people who they brought in -- the Marines and stuff, the National Guard -- have been excellent," she said. "They are keeping us out of our homes even though we're getting upset with them. We have no right because they're trying to protect us."
Local authorities expect to release a list of areas that are safe by Monday afternoon, with the hope that people can begin returning to their homes Tuesday, Brown said.
About 36,000 Iowans were evacuated because of statewide flooding, 24,000 of them in Cedar Rapids. The massive flooding has overwhelmed the city -- which is in a 500-year flood plain, an area the federal government says has less than a 0.2 percent chance of flooding. Watch residents begin the cleanup process »
"It's been compared to a 3,000-year flood," Cedar Rapids police Detective Brad Novak said. "So something with that rarity of an event, there is no playbook to go by."
Praise God, there has not been the loss of life from this flood that we saw from Katrina..but on the other side of the coin..the sheer scale of this event is very significant in terms of its effects over the next 18 months..for the local communities, this state, our Nation and the World in respect to much.
One thing that caught my attention was the human nature factor..
That folks are so frustrated and mad about getting back to their homes..to try to salvage items, that they would turn upon the local law enforcement folks and rescue responder teams actually there to try to protect them.
Someone used the phrase, "stop or I will have to shoot you for your own protection" while discussing the engagement of the police with the man trying to use his vehicle as a weapon to break through the baracades..
Folks are becoming very restless and concerned that the prices and shortages mean they had better run out and stock up on specific food items to brace themselves for the ripple effects.. a quiet 'panic' seems to be settling in :thinking
The thing is I can understand so much of this from legitimate concerns on both sides of the fence.. yet I am also seeing the "Katrina Mentality" creep in and showing up in society at large, and from those who don't live along side of the Mississippi in this Nation..
Thoughts? As a Christian community, where is the line that should not be crossed here as these events play themselves out in future months and what seperates it from the one that should be given the reality that these problems are very real and will affect our lives...:idunno
Seem's to me IMHO..that they lines are becoming very "gray" depending on which side one is standing on..
For instance, should the law enforcement have the right to remove you from your home or keep you from returning to it if you chose to accept the risks, yet if they do not, should they be "blamed" for failure to protect you from "yourself"?:scratch