HisAlways
June 18th, 2008, 02:30 PM
Under pressure from falling home values, high oil prices and rising unemployment, the economy in California and the nation will perform anemically in the coming months -- but there still won't be an actual recession, UCLA forecasters say.
"I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," said economist Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which is being released today.
The predictions, however, call for somewhat more pain in the months ahead than previously forecast, with little improvement this year or next.
Not good, but not a recession, which is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product.
"In a recession, things happen quicker and nastier," said David Shulman, a senior economist at UCLA.
Normal growth will not resume until 2010, Shulman said.
:thinking I hope to not be here come 2010.:heh
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ18-2008jun18,0,5085180.story
"I am holding on to what is now a shaky view: no recession this year," said economist Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast, which is being released today.
The predictions, however, call for somewhat more pain in the months ahead than previously forecast, with little improvement this year or next.
Not good, but not a recession, which is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product.
"In a recession, things happen quicker and nastier," said David Shulman, a senior economist at UCLA.
Normal growth will not resume until 2010, Shulman said.
:thinking I hope to not be here come 2010.:heh
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ18-2008jun18,0,5085180.story