The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

[felixthecat]

Once again the peak oil theory is misrepresented again... and misunderstood... Peak oil is not about running out of oil... it is about FLOW RATES!!! This is very simple... Even if you drilled all of that today and got it up in 5-10 years would your new flow rate be higher than todays flow rate minus the declines in the world's mature fields??? That is the question.... What is the ultimate peak flow rate.... ? Right now we sit around 85 Million Barrels a Day... With declines out of the biggest fields reaching 14% in some cases.... can we get past this number... and by how much? Maybe 90 mbpd ..... 100 TOPS! It is estimated by 2020 we will need something like 120.... We are falling behind and while there is more oil out there I seriously doubt we will be able to get enough flow to meet the world's thirst..... Yea and by the way.... oil shale and sands is extremely low flow.


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10 Years to Drill for Oil. Another lie!

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A Congressman followed my segment and suggested that drilling wouldn’t help for 10 years or more. I know this is absolutely untrue, so I called Transocean, the biggest driller in the world. An officer of the company told me that depending on the location of the drilling, oil could be realized in as little as a year.

Ultra-deepwater fields might produce in 3-5 years. For the most remote locations, without any prior infrastructure support, that barrel may require a 4-6 year window. I suggested 8 years and he said that he could not envision a situation where it would require more than 6 years to bring a barrel out of the ocean floor.
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http://patriotroom.com/?p=467

[felixthecat]

Great post. More drilling definitely isn't the answer, hopefully there will be an affordable alternative in the near-future.


In the meantime as you look for this magic bullet ... how much are you willing to pay for oil? Are we to sit on our hands and ignore oil that can be drilled?

[Hootmon]

If we were to access more in terms of flow rate, that would likely help. I wonder how long the start up time is if we were to access new sites and how quickly it would contribute to the flow rate. If we are talking about years, I wonder what solutions could be proposed near term.The longer we wait, the longer it will take.

Drill now.

[jds6958]

The longer we wait, the longer it will take.

Drill now.

I can agree with that. Start up time is a minimum of 3 years though, and that is rushing it. I would like to see something done within 3 years along with igniting efforts immediatly to drill more. Of course, we are only tackling 20% of the problem (flow rate) here, as 80% of the problem is global currency debasement. So if we were to a pareto chart, we would find that our focus is a little off when examining solutions. If we do not address currency debasement even increasing the flow rate will be of little consequence. Ideally, we would do both. More than likely, we will do neither.

[Hootmon]

The mere announcement of an intention to drill will have an impact, especially among the speculators.

[Issachar]

More than likely, we will do neither. Ok Mr. Sunshine ... I agree. :)

Issachar

[jds6958]

The mere announcement of an intention to drill will have an impact, especially among the speculators.

Maybe for about 24 hours, then they will do the math as well and come to the same conclusion. Oil futures speculate 6-12 months out. It would take a minimum of 2 years to really "price that in"

It would scare some of the bulls and b/c many are on margin; it could be quite a nice correction. It may even impact gas prices about 10%. However b/c currency debasement will again take over, the effects would be minimal and unfortunately short lived.

It would have to be a multifaceted scare job (alt energy+new oil drilling+better utilization efficiency) to really make an impact. Couple that with currency stabilization and we could have $3 gas again.

Then we have other black swans that trump all, ME instability, U.S. economy meltdown, etc...

The solution is complex and large and not one proposal genertated yet will make a dent, however, the opportunity still exists if leadership is motivated enough...it could still happen, but we should expect much more pain first...

[robinhoooood]

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10 Years to Drill for Oil. Another lie!

...

A Congressman followed my segment and suggested that drilling wouldn’t help for 10 years or more. I know this is absolutely untrue, so I called Transocean, the biggest driller in the world. An officer of the company told me that depending on the location of the drilling, oil could be realized in as little as a year.

Ultra-deepwater fields might produce in 3-5 years. For the most remote locations, without any prior infrastructure support, that barrel may require a 4-6 year window. I suggested 8 years and he said that he could not envision a situation where it would require more than 6 years to bring a barrel out of the ocean floor.
...

http://patriotroom.com/?p=467



Yes, you are correct they could bring that oil out much faster if everyone involved is motivated and everything runs smoothly... which can be asking a lot... especially with offshore wells.

Like I have said before.... even if you could realize all that oil instantly right now that would cause you to reach your peak world flow rate that much quicker.... yea for those few years of expanding oil would be great.. cheap prices would be back... the world would expand further and consume the new energy we have produced... and then we hit the decline side of the slope... and once again we are back to the same problem... only now we have tapped all the wells....

I don't disagree that we need to be drilling more now... I am just saying... this is not a long term solution and at one point or another we will have to face the music on our energy situation... which no one seems to want to face.

[jds6958]

Yes, you are correct they could bring that oil out much faster if everyone involved is motivated and everything runs smoothly... which can be asking a lot... especially with offshore wells.

Like I have said before.... even if you could realize all that oil instantly right now that would cause you to reach your peak world flow rate that much quicker.... yea for those few years of expanding oil would be great.. cheap prices would be back... the world would expand further and consume the new energy we have produced... and then we hit the decline side of the slope... and once again we are back to the same problem... only now we have tapped all the wells....

I don't disagree that we need to be drilling more now... I am just saying... this is not a long term solution and at one point or another we will have to face the music on our energy situation... which no one seems to want to face.

Exactly, at the end of the day it is or will be a bell curve...

[robinhoooood]

I would highly recommend this podcast.

http://www.themarkettraders.com/content/the-market-traders-podcast-james-howard-kunstler

This guys ultimate point ends up being... it is time to stop arguing... and start doing! We have run out of time to be arguing over whether we are in an energy crisis etc etc.... It runs about 35 mins...