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felixthecat
June 22nd, 2008, 03:33 PM
The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful :faint

June 22,2008

Jason Schwarz

The data is becoming conclusive that peak oil is a myth. High oil prices (USO) (OIL) are doing their job as oil exploration is flush with new finds:


1. An offshore find by Brazilian state oil company Petrobras (PBR) in partnership with BG Group (BRGYY.PK) and Repsol-YPF may be the world's biggest discovery in 30 years


2. A trio of oil companies led by Chevron Corp. (CVX) has tapped a petroleum pool deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico that could boost U.S. reserves by more than 50 percent..


3.West Cape Three Points is the largest discovery in deep water West Africa and potentially the largest single field discovery in the region.


4. A new oil discovery has been made by Statoil (STO) in the Ragnarrock prospect near the Sleipner area in the North Sea.


5. Shell (RDS.A) is currently analyzing and evaluating the well data of their own find in the Gulf of Mexico to determine next steps. This find is rumored to be capable of producing 100 billion barrels.


6. In Iraq, excavators have struck three oil fields with reserves estimated at about 2 billion barrels


7.Iran's new discovery is estimated to have reserves of 750 million barrels, according to Iran's Oil Minister, Gholamhossein Nozari.


8. The United States holds significant oil shale resources underlying a total area of 16,000 square miles. This represents the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world and holds an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of oil with 800 billion recoverable barrells – enough to meet U.S. demand for oil at current levels for 110 years. More than 70 percent of American oil shale is on Federal land, primarily ...

...


The peak oil theory is a money making scam put out by the speculators looking for high commodity returns in a challenging market environment. Most of the above mentioned finds have occurred in the last two years alone. I didn't even mention the untapped Alaskan oil fields or the recent Danish and Australian finds. In the long term, crude prices will find stability at historic norms because there is no supply problem. How much longer will investors ignore these new oil finds? Probably until they can find other investment alternatives which won't happen in the broad market until financials (XLF) stop hemorrhaging. Respect the trend but understand that this is a bubble preparing to burst. When oil hit it's high of $139 it represented more than a 600% increase in crude since the bull market began, returns eerily similar to the dot.com craze.

There are many theories that sound good but just aren't true. Take Al Gore's global warming crusade. It sounded great, it made perfect sense but there was just one problem, the facts didn't support it. It seems that the masses who were loudly calling for a global warming crisis have shifted their energies to oil. We are bombarded on a daily basis by those who tell us that we should be fearful. They spin good news into bad. The latest absurdity had Goldman Sachs telling investors that China's 18% price increase will actually increase demand! That's a new one. Just like global warming, the rationale for peak oil sounds great, it makes sense, but there is just one small problem, the facts don't support it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/82236-the-peak-oil-myth-new-oil-is-plentiful?source=yahoo

Now, where do the Presidential canidates stand on getting the oil to YOU?

Get used to higher prices?

Drill?

robinhoooood
June 22nd, 2008, 05:05 PM
Once again the peak oil theory is misrepresented again... and misunderstood... Peak oil is not about running out of oil... it is about FLOW RATES!!! This is very simple... Even if you drilled all of that today and got it up in 5-10 years would your new flow rate be higher than todays flow rate minus the declines in the world's mature fields??? That is the question.... What is the ultimate peak flow rate.... ? Right now we sit around 85 Million Barrels a Day... With declines out of the biggest fields reaching 14% in some cases.... can we get past this number... and by how much? Maybe 90 mbpd ..... 100 TOPS! It is estimated by 2020 we will need something like 120.... We are falling behind and while there is more oil out there I seriously doubt we will be able to get enough flow to meet the world's thirst..... Yea and by the way.... oil shale and sands is extremely low flow.

jds6958
June 22nd, 2008, 05:15 PM
Once again the peak oil theory is misrepresented again... and misunderstood... Peak oil is not about running out of oil... it is about FLOW RATES!!! This is very simple... Even if you drilled all of that today and got it up in 5-10 years would your new flow rate be higher than todays flow rate minus the declines in the world's mature fields??? That is the question.... What is the ultimate peak flow rate.... ? Right now we sit around 85 Million Barrels a Day... With declines out of the biggest fields reaching 14% in some cases.... can we get past this number... and by how much? Maybe 90 mbpd ..... 100 TOPS! It is estimated by 2020 we will need something like 120.... We are falling behind and while there is more oil out there I seriously doubt we will be able to get enough flow to meet the world's thirst..... Yea and by the way.... oil shale and sands is extremely low flow.

Unfortuantly this is the case.

Issachar
June 22nd, 2008, 05:51 PM
That is true robinhoooood. Peak oil is usually misrepresented. It is much more to do with what you stated.

I sort of hope this thread gets merged with Mulligan's thread; The Energy Un-Crisis-Lindsey Williams. Or maybe not ....

I have read much on both views and have come to the conclusion that someone or someTHING is behind one of the biggest disinformation campaigms in history. Maybe it's one of the biggest because it is about one of the biggest issues of all time; energy for a globally oil-dependent world.

We have strong cases, seemingly, for "plenty of oil" or "not enough oil." Someone is lying or someone is hiding. How can the paying public know?

I do know that the world is not as we may suppose; not when it comes to economies and not when it comes to energy and not when it comes to food supplies.

Issachar

felixthecat
June 22nd, 2008, 07:19 PM
I am not concerned with "flow rate".

I am more concerned with accessing a supply that is out there NOW. We are not in the crisis being created. The numbers alone indicate we are not at "peak" yet.

jds6958
June 22nd, 2008, 07:47 PM
I am not concerned with "flow rate".

I am more concerned with accessing a supply that is out there NOW. We are not in the crisis being created. The numbers alone indicate we are not at "peak" yet.

If we were to access more in terms of flow rate, that would likely help. I wonder how long the start up time is if we were to access new sites and how quickly it would contribute to the flow rate. If we are talking about years, I wonder what solutions could be proposed near term.

Issachar
June 22nd, 2008, 07:54 PM
Imho, IF the oil is truly there; e.g. Gull Island, then there is nothing we can do to get it tapped if it hasn't happened yet after almost 40 years of knowing about it.

Something is up with all this. I'm glad our Lord knows EVERY detail of EVERY person involved because after reading, unbiased, I have to say I don't understand. How many men and women have been in the government since the discovery of this (said) vast oil reserve on the North Slope that can supply the U.S. for 200+ years? There is the president, his cabinet, 100 senators and 435 representatives at any given time X the number years (almost 40). That has to be over a few thousand. Not ONE can publicly speak up? Not ONE can go to the public and spill the beans? I do not believe what we do know is nearly all of the truth.

Issachar, still searching

robinhoooood
June 22nd, 2008, 09:30 PM
Imho, IF the oil is truly there; e.g. Gull Island, then there is nothing we can do to get it tapped if it hasn't happened yet after almost 40 years of knowing about it.

Something is up with all this. I'm glad our Lord knows EVERY detail of EVERY person involved because after reading, unbiased, I have to say I don't understand. How many men and women have been in the government since the discovery of this (said) vast oil reserve on the North Slope that can supply the U.S. for 200+ years? There is the president, his cabinet, 100 senators and 435 representatives at any given time X the number years (almost 40). That has to be over a few thousand. Not ONE can publicly speak up? Not ONE can go to the public and spill the beans? I do not believe what we do know is nearly all of the truth.

Issachar, still searching

I understand your concern... there is one thing I have learned to be true so far in life.... the truth is always somewhere in the middle. You are correct... there could not be that many people guarding the knowledge of that oil field... it is likely that this is a myth... there may be oil up there but there are so many details missing.... like what type of fields they are... and the structure of the oil below and the permeability of the rock surrounding etc etc... There are vast amounts of oil that Saudi Arabia has not exploited that is part of their Gwahar field.... but this is due to the sheer amount of money and infrastructure needed to exploit it... not to mention the flow rate achieved would not pay for the investment in the near to medium term... there are many cases like this all over the world.

There is simply not a good enough reason to keep an oil field of that size a secret... Even if we waited until the future so the price would be higher... the world would be in desperate need for oil by this point and a lot of resource wars would be going on... and even more.. the economies of the world would be in shambles... it is very high risk to hold off oil for that amount of time in order to make more profit... it is just not smart business...

I think it is more likely that the world is approaching a time when we simply need more oil to flow than we can get flowing... I am sure there are a lot of fields out there... but certainly not ones the size of Saudi ... and those are the finds we need... and multiple fields that size... I am rambling now....

Basically my point was... if you take one extreme and then the other... just cut it right down the middle and I would bet you will be very close to the truth....

kdowd771
June 22nd, 2008, 09:51 PM
Correct me if I am wrong here.

Even though there are large quantities of untapped oil out there, isn't it of the type that is not easily refined? The Saudis have lots of oil that they can pump cheap at 20-50 per barrel, this is the type of oil that is running out. The larger fields that have recently been discoved are of a poorer quality oil that requires substantially more refining as well as being more expensive to pump from the ground.

Its the cheap easy to get at oil that we are running out of.

robinhoooood
June 22nd, 2008, 11:57 PM
Correct me if I am wrong here.

Even though there are large quantities of untapped oil out there, isn't it of the type that is not easily refined? The Saudis have lots of oil that they can pump cheap at 20-50 per barrel, this is the type of oil that is running out. The larger fields that have recently been discoved are of a poorer quality oil that requires substantially more refining as well as being more expensive to pump from the ground.

Its the cheap easy to get at oil that we are running out of.

That is correct for the most part... I mean I am sure there is still "easy oil" left but not in the vast amounts that would be necessary to get high flow rates from in order to offset declines around the world.

But then again maybe Felix is right... they are holding off on drilling the most massive oil field known... and they are going to watch our economy buckle under the pressure and watch a lot of people suffer.... I am not sure why but hey... who knows...