Another warning from the IEA

[robinhoooood]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd683aa0-4764-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Well they took it off this link I think... sorry :(

The International Energy Agency’s warning is the starkest sign yet that even record oil prices above $140 a barrel have not yet not done enough to balance demand growth from countries such as China with sluggish supply increases.


The fast decline of fields – especially in the North Sea and Mexico where production is shrinking by more than 20 per cent each year – means that 14.8m of the 16m barrels of new supply from non-Opec countries over the next five years will go to making up for losses from old fields producing less and less each year.


But the IEA warned governments not to blame speculators. It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions.”

[robinhoooood]

And here is a great report from the IEA in pdf form...

http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2008/eagles_mtomr2008.pdf

[robinhoooood]

Also this is the IEA report.... aka analysis

http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2008/eagles_mtomr2008.pdf

I know I know... actual numbers and analysis... I am sure most of us here would rather talk about different conspiratorial reaons for the prices being so high....

[dramama]

Also this is the IEA report.... aka analysis

http://www.iea.org/textbase/speech/2008/eagles_mtomr2008.pdf

I know I know... actual numbers and analysis... I am sure most of us here would rather talk about different conspiratorial reaons for the prices being so high....

(sarcasm on) we all know it's the evil oil companies and greedy speculators.....

[robinhoooood]

Oh here is some more...

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/01/peak-oil-iea-inches-toward-the-pessimists-camp/

But the juiciest nugget? The conservative IEA appears to be inching ever-closer to the “peak-oil” crowd. Supply simply can’t keep pace with demand—everybody with an oil well has the taps open, but there’s not much left in the keg. Oil fields are aging quicker than free-agent pitchers, and the global oil industry has to run faster just to stay in place. From the IEA:

Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream — to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated [IEA Executive Director Nabuo] Tanaka.

So where’s that fresh supply going to come from? As the IEA noted, Saudi Arabia is the only country with a glimmer of spare production capacity—and the jury is still out on that. Increased domestic drilling, the U.S. energy agency already said, would be but a hiccup in the global market. Non-OPEC countries, from Norway to Mexico, are expected to chip in just 1.2 million barrels per day of new crude by 2013, IEA head of market analysis Lawrence Eagle said—or less than half the global shortfall.

Politicians can pick their bogeyman—be it speculators, OPEC, or Democrats. But more and more it seems like the oil conundrum boils down to an age-old truth: Finite supplies can’t meet infinite demands.