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Thread: Interesting... (War simulation involving Iran, US and Israel.)

  1. #1
    Elliottalb Guest

    Exclamation Interesting... (War simulation involving Iran, US and Israel.)

    I thought this was actually pretty interesting. Any thoughts?

    Oh, I can't post links yet so I'm unable to provide the actual source. I did my best to leave in enough info for you to find it with Google, though.
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/2...king-iran.html


    By Warren P. Strobel | McClatchy Newspapers

    WASHINGTON — Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how unintended consequences can spin out of control:

    With diplomacy failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by years.

    But what happens next isn't pretty.

    The U.S. president and his National Security Council try to keep the crisis from escalating. That sours U.S.-Israeli relations, already stressed by the fact that Israel didn't inform Washington in advance of the strike. The White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is rejected.

    Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It misinterprets U.S. actions as weakness and mines the Straits of Hormuz, the world's chief oil artery. That sparks a clash and a massive U.S. military reinforcement in the Persian Gulf.

    This recent war game conducted at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, part of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a center-left think tank, appears to dampen hopes for a simple solution to Iran's real-world nuclear challenge.

    The lesson is "once you start this, it's really hard to stop it," said Kenneth Pollack, a former White House and CIA official who oversaw the simulation.

    Pollack and others who participated in the day-long exercise late last year are quick to point out that war games are imperfect mirrors of reality. How Iran's notoriously opaque and fractious leadership would react in a real crisis is particularly hard to divine.

    But the outcome underscores what diplomats, military officers and analysts have long said: even a "successful" airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities — setting the program back by two to four years — could come at a tremendous, unpredictable cost.

    "It's ... an option that has to be looked at very, very, very carefully," a senior European diplomat said Friday. "Because we know what the results could be, and they could be disastrous." He requested anonymity to speak more frankly on the sensitive issue.

    Tensions over Iran's nuclear program rose again this week after the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog reported that the country could be secretly developing a nuclear warhead to be placed atop a ballistic missile. Additionally, Iran has begun enriching uranium closer to the purity level needed for use in a nuclear weapon.

    Israel, which sees Iran as a direct threat, has refused to rule out military force, although officials there say they are counting for now on diplomatic pressure. There have even been hints from Sunni Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, that they would look the other way in the event of a strike on Shiite Iran, a historic adversary.

    Yet one of the Brookings war game's major conclusions is that Israel could pay dearly for an attack on Iran.

    By the end of the simulation, eight days after the fictitious Israeli strike, Israel's prime minister, under heavy domestic pressure, is forced to launch a 48-hour air blitz in southern Lebanon to halt rocket attacks from Hezbollah, the militant group sponsored by Iran. Israeli officials know the blitz is unlikely to achieve its objectives, and prepare a larger, costlier operation in Lebanon, including ground forces.

    Israel's relations with the United States, its most important ally, are damaged. To avoid damaging them further, Israel bows to intense U.S. pressure and absorbs occasional missile strikes from Iran without retaliating.

    Some members of the "Israeli" team nonetheless felt that setting back Iran's nuclear program "was worth it, even given what was a pretty robust response," said one participant. He asked that his name not be used, because under the game's ground rules, participants are supposed to remain anonymous.

    Jonathan Peled, an Israeli embassy spokesman, declined comment on the war game or its outcome.

    "All we can say is that Iran constitutes a threat not only to Israel but to the region, to the US and to the world at large, and therefore should be addressed without delay by the international community, first and foremost through effective sanctions," he said.

    The Brookings war game was one of three simulations regarding Iran's nuclear program conducted in December. The other two, at Harvard University and Tel Aviv University, reportedly found that neither sanctions nor threats dissuaded Tehran from its suspected nuclear weapons ambitions.

    In the Brookings game, three teams of experts, including former senior U.S. officials, played the Israeli, Iranian and American leadership. They assembled in separate rooms at the think tank's Washington headquarters. Israeli and U.S. "officials" communicated with each other, but not with the Iranians.

    One of the simulation's major findings was how aggressively the Iranians responded to the attack — more aggressively, some participants felt, than they would in real life — and how Washington and Tehran, lacking direct communication, misunderstood each other.

    Iran did not retaliate directly against the United States or U.S. troops in Iraq or Afghanistan. But it struck back at Israel, then attacked Dharan in eastern Saudi Arabia, then began mining the Straits of Hormuz.

    "There would be almost no incentive for Iran not to respond" with force, said another participant, a member of the Iranian team. "It was interesting to see how useful it was for Tehran to push the limits."

    Without knowing it, Iran's last two actions crossed U.S. "red lines," prompting an American military response.

    "No one came out on top — (but) arguably the Iranians," the Iran team member said.

    The Tehran regime was also able to crush its domestic political opposition.

    MORE FROM MCCLATCHY

    Iran may be seeking nuclear warhead, U.N. watchdog says

    Hand of diplomacy not working, Obama may get tougher on Iran

    Iran suppresses protests as leader proclaims 'nuclear state'
    Last edited by MrMannn; February 22nd, 2010 at 08:31 AM. Reason: added link

  2. #2
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    I'm no General. Just a simpleton I suppose, but nevertheless I think they are over analyzing the situation. I think Israel can do enough damage to the known sites in Iran to set them way back. Iran does not have the military might or means to cross Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Jordan and retaliate with an Invasion. They do not have the airforce to try and bomb Israel in response. They have virtually no real naval vessels. On the land, air and sea, they do not have the means to strike directly back at Israel.

    All they could do is lob some missiles at Israel and I think Israel will shoot down the vast majority of them and will be able to weather any missile strike from Iran's current arsenal. They are prepared to deal with the ones that they don't shoot down. They (Iran) will probly try to activate their terror proxies in Syria and Lebanon and if they provoke an all out invasion from the IDF, they'll get smashed and Israel will occupy more territory on it's northern border.

    Then you have the the political unrest in Iran. I know the Iranians have no love for Israel, however, if I were the Israeli airforce, I would first pepper their cities with flyers telling the protesters that when you see the Ayatollah's nuclear program getting bombed, then that is the time for you to take back your country. There is NO way a two bit dictatorial muslim theocracy like Iran's can handle an all out air blitz from Israel and waves of protesters storming government buildings at the same time. If we had a President that would get behind the dissenters in Iran, combined with an Israeli strike, the Iranian dictatorship would collapse.

    Just my 2 cents.

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    Doesn't the protesters fit into their end times, unrest and everything?
    Will an attack by ISRAEL unite them? I think the protesters hate ISRAEL more than the ayatollahs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph The Carpenter View Post
    Doesn't the protesters fit into their end times, unrest and everything?
    Will an attack by ISRAEL unite them? I think the protesters hate ISRAEL more than the ayatollahs.
    No doubt they hate Israel, but they could possibly be persuaded to lay that aside long enough to overthrow a government they clearly resent.

    Ahmadinijad has built his career on bashing Israel and threatening them with destruction and building nukes for that purpose. Up to this point......it doesn't appear to me that the Iranians are all that thrilled with it considering the images I've seen of them rioting in the streets.

  5. #5
    Zion Guest

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    I wonder about these simulations. Is it true that many military historians/professors won't teach about the Six-Day war because it defies all logic? Would simulations prior to June 1967 suggest that ALL of Egypt's planes would be destroyed on the tarmac? The article states that two of the simulations ( at Harvard and Tel Aviv) "found that neither sanctions nor threats dissuaded Tehran from its suspected nuclear weapons ambitions". If Israel thinks that Tehran won't stop pursuing nukes, then they will strike as they have vowed never again to allow a holocaust. 18-24 months is my outside guesstimate as to when Iran will have a deliverable nuke. So Israel may have to preempt in the next 18 months. Then again, there could be regime change in Iran. Never underestimate the power and zeal of the masses. Who knows, maybe an Israeli high-tech guru is working now to invent a new communication tool that Iranian street protestors can use, a means of communication that cannot be censored or shut down. Then images of Revolutionary Guards' brutality can be beamed around the world.

  6. #6
    MrMannn Guest

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    This article should surprise no one. We all have known that any attack on Iran will result in a regional war. Iran has its armies (hezbolah and hamas) positioned on two Israeli fronts. Its ally Syria and the slave state of Lebanon are also ready to attack.

    The only real question is will Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan join in?

    But Israel has no choice. The alternative is to wait quietly until Iran wipes them out in a 2nd holocaust. and thats no choice at all. I cannot see how Israel can survive without using nuclear weapons in this war. Isaiah 17:1

    Once nukes are brought into play, everything changes. The war ends abruptly and the lost world rages. Europe freaks. The kings of the south seethes in anger as yet another muslim loss to Israel unfolds. I think they start planning anew and prepare a hook to lure Gog Magog into battle.

    And even though we see the terrible majesty of God's prophecy unfold before our eyes, they will be no rejoicing as many millions will be dead. The events we are about to see will be horrific. Here we are a prophetic board, and I'm betting we will be stunned into silence. Sobering thought.

    we can all see it coming. There is good reason the Bible tells us to pray for the peace of Jerusalem.


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    I think is is sound planning that Israel knows if it launches a strike against Iran, it must be with a co-olition of Arab states - Egypt, Jordan, Saudi, maybe even China or India at least not objecting.

    If Russia responds, it would be strange indeed at tatically it would be unwise.

    On the other hand Israel will also have to consider if they pre-emptively strike Iran, she will most likely have to take on the whole world, and unless the oil and gas finds in the Med are enough to sate the US's hunger, even her closest ally will turn on her.
    It's ALL about Jesus. The Son of God - Emanuel - The Mighty God - Our Salvation.

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  8. #8
    Caver Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMannn View Post
    This article should surprise no one. We all have known that any attack on Iran will result in a regional war. Iran has its armies (hezbolah and hamas) positioned on two Israeli fronts. Its ally Syria and the slave state of Lebanon are also ready to attack.

    The only real question is will Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan join in?

    But Israel has no choice. The alternative is to wait quietly until Iran wipes them out in a 2nd holocaust. and thats no choice at all. I cannot see how Israel can survive without using nuclear weapons in this war. Isaiah 17:1

    Once nukes are brought into play, everything changes. The war ends abruptly and the lost world rages. Europe freaks. The kings of the south seethes in anger as yet another muslim loss to Israel unfolds. I think they start planning anew and prepare a hook to lure Gog Magog into battle.

    And even though we see the terrible majesty of God's prophecy unfold before our eyes, they will be no rejoicing as many millions will be dead. The events we are about to see will be horrific. Here we are a prophetic board, and I'm betting we will be stunned into silence. Sobering thought.

    we can all see it coming. There is good reason the Bible tells us to pray for the peace of Jerusalem.
    Absolutely agree.....

    There are some other good "think tank" results out there and the results are so varied. A fortune is spent on these results by big finance and business to know what to do, who to lend to, and where to invest. The results are often kept quiet because they see it as their competitive advantage that they paid for.

    Much depends on just what value Israel places on different options. As a given....Israel is a small nation and only has so many assets, they can't do everything at the same time. For every airplane assigned a target and mission, another potential mission goes without. If Israel places enough value on the world's opinion/reaction and is willing to sacrifice some losses to protect the world's oil supply it could go a long way in preventing the world from isolating and coming down on them so hard. That would mean trying to keep the mine laying boats in port or sunk and taking out the missiles aimed at SA's oil production.

    But, that would give free reign to the many missile firing sites surrounding 3 sides of Israel.

    All it would take is one Saran tipped missile in TA, the airport, or harbor to cripple Israel in a multitude of ways for a long time.

    Israel's leadership is truly trying to identify and select the best of the bad options. They and their leadership need our prayers big time and while we're at it, blindness and confusion for their enemies might be good too.

  9. #9
    Bookmaker Guest

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    I believe the conflict is inevitable. An immediate effect here will be fuel rationing.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMannn View Post
    This article should surprise no one. We all have known that any attack on Iran will result in a regional war. Iran has its armies (hezbolah and hamas) positioned on two Israeli fronts. Its ally Syria and the slave state of Lebanon are also ready to attack.

    The only real question is will Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan join in?

    But Israel has no choice. The alternative is to wait quietly until Iran wipes them out in a 2nd holocaust. and thats no choice at all. I cannot see how Israel can survive without using nuclear weapons in this war. Isaiah 17:1

    Once nukes are brought into play, everything changes. The war ends abruptly and the lost world rages. Europe freaks. The kings of the south seethes in anger as yet another muslim loss to Israel unfolds. I think they start planning anew and prepare a hook to lure Gog Magog into battle.

    And even though we see the terrible majesty of God's prophecy unfold before our eyes, they will be no rejoicing as many millions will be dead. The events we are about to see will be horrific. Here we are a prophetic board, and I'm betting we will be stunned into silence. Sobering thought.

    we can all see it coming. There is good reason the Bible tells us to pray for the peace of Jerusalem.

    Well said MrMannn and I agree..BUT,can Israel take out Damascus(Isaiah 17) with a nuke without alot of surrounding Damage???
    Isaiah 41:10

    Fear not, for I am with you; Be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, Yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’

  11. #11
    MrMannn Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by ByFaithIFly View Post
    Well said MrMannn and I agree..BUT,can Israel take out Damascus(Isaiah 17) with a nuke without alot of surrounding Damage???
    All we know is it will never be a city again.

    Now Israel does have a neutron bomb. That will be for the close up targets.

  12. #12
    Elliottalb Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMannn View Post
    This article should surprise no one. We all have known that any attack on Iran will result in a regional war. Iran has its armies (hezbolah and hamas) positioned on two Israeli fronts. Its ally Syria and the slave state of Lebanon are also ready to attack.

    The only real question is will Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan join in?

    But Israel has no choice. The alternative is to wait quietly until Iran wipes them out in a 2nd holocaust. and thats no choice at all. I cannot see how Israel can survive without using nuclear weapons in this war. Isaiah 17:1

    Once nukes are brought into play, everything changes. The war ends abruptly and the lost world rages. Europe freaks. The kings of the south seethes in anger as yet another muslim loss to Israel unfolds. I think they start planning anew and prepare a hook to lure Gog Magog into battle.

    And even though we see the terrible majesty of God's prophecy unfold before our eyes, they will be no rejoicing as many millions will be dead. The events we are about to see will be horrific. Here we are a prophetic board, and I'm betting we will be stunned into silence. Sobering thought.

    we can all see it coming. There is good reason the Bible tells us to pray for the peace of Jerusalem.


    I honestly do not think Israel would or should use nuclear weapons. Israel is a strong nation, I would even go so far as to call them a regional super power. Let's also not forget which side God is on, either.

    Israel would also have the advantage of knowing when and how the war starts. They would have the time and resources to defend their borders from their despotic neighbors.

    A nuclear strike would kill indiscriminately, both civilians and military alike and would do little to stop Iran. The leadership of Iran would be in bunkers, immune from the strike. When it was over they would emerge still in charge and with a newly united nation and region.

    We are talking about killing millions upon millions of civilians that do not support their government's actions. I'm sorry MR mann, but I honestly feel this is just not acceptable. Nuclear weapons can not be used offensively if there is even the remote chance of a traditional military victory IMO.

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    Yet, Isaiah 17 tells us Damascus will be leveled in one night by Israel. Turned into a ruinous heap. It is inevitable that there will be many civilian casualties, but prophecy tells us that it WILL happen--whether by nuke or not, it will happen.
    What a wonderful day it will be when we hear the trumpet blasts!!

  14. #14
    MrMannn Guest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Elliottalb View Post
    I honestly do not think Israel would or should use nuclear weapons. Israel is a strong nation, I would even go so far as to call them a regional super power. Let's also not forget which side God is on, either.

    Israel would also have the advantage of knowing when and how the war starts. They would have the time and resources to defend their borders from their despotic neighbors.

    A nuclear strike would kill indiscriminately, both civilians and military alike and would do little to stop Iran. The leadership of Iran would be in bunkers, immune from the strike. When it was over they would emerge still in charge and with a newly united nation and region.

    We are talking about killing millions upon millions of civilians that do not support their government's actions. I'm sorry MR mann, but I honestly feel this is just not acceptable. Nuclear weapons can not be used offensively if there is even the remote chance of a traditional military victory IMO.
    The nukes we are talking about are against Syria and maybe Lebanon. The Bible prophesies Syria will be wiped out and it uses language that describes nuclear weapons to a T.

    Israel almost used nukes in several wars. they came very close. If forced to, they will use nukes. whether or not people agree. If massive armies are marching upon them, chemical weapons are used against them, yes, Israel has an array of tactical (small), neutron, and standard nuclear weapons at their disposal.

    In regards to Iran, Israel does not need to wipe it out but just to remove the nuclear facilities. Israel doesn't need to remove Iranian leaders. A tactical nuke could be used against an underground nuclear complex in place of a bunker buster bomb.

    Bottom line, its Syria that will feel the brunt of Israeli wrath. And Syria will be the one to start it.

    That said do I KNOW if this war will trigger the Isaiah 17 prophecy? No. Its just speculation. But things sure do look like they are headed that way.

  15. #15
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    Default Israel/Iran

    There is a major point that is left out of the "simulations" and one which most of the leaders of the Western Nations are not considering. The Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad want an apocalyptic confrontation that will bring back their "Mahdi" (their messiah, or the 12th imam). They are begging for an attack and will use it as an excuse to unleash everything they have.

    I also think that people underestimate what they "have"... They certainly have a lot in common with North Korea and I'm sure they have had "dealings" with that country. They are a major oil supplier and arms customer for Russia. China is more their ally than adversary; they have hamas and hezbollah (which is said to have "cells" throughout Europe and the U.S.).

    I would think people would understand by now that the Ayatollah and Ahmadinejad or not "reasonable' -- they are fanatical in their belief, and obsessed by their own prophecy. The first one to "push the button" (most likely Israel) will be initiating an apocalyptic battle. Which nations will support Israel and which ones will support Iran? That decision will result in eternal consequences.
    We know which side God will be on, and because of that, will be victorious. Maybe we'll be here to see it and maybe we won't.

    Yes, I believe we should pray for the leaders, and for Jerusalem -- and I do. At the same time I can see things moving in the direction the Bible said they would. God has brought the Jewish people back to Israel and I believe He will give them one more opportunity to recognize and turn to Him before He pours out His wrath. I believe we are living in that generation "that will not pass" before all these things take place. You're right, perhaps I too am "fanatical", but its on the side of Our Lord Jesus Christ!!!!

    God Bless!!
    1Co 15:52 in a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. For the trumpet will sound, and the dead will be raised incorruptible, and we will be changed!

  16. #16
    clay's nemesis Guest

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    Who is to say that ONLY Damascus is destroyed in that one night. I truly believe that Israel is going to stun the entire world by dropping nuclear bombs on everyone in sight. When everyone starts shooting chemical missles at Israel, they will open a major can of whoop-*** on anyone even remotely involved. If it came across the news right now that a nuclear war has started in the holy land I would not be shocked. I fully expect it and would be suprised if it didn't happen...

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    Quote Originally Posted by clay's nemesis View Post
    Who is to say that ONLY Damascus is destroyed in that one night. I truly believe that Israel is going to stun the entire world by dropping nuclear bombs on everyone in sight. When everyone starts shooting chemical missles at Israel, they will open a major can of whoop-*** on anyone even remotely involved. If it came across the news right now that a nuclear war has started in the holy land I would not be shocked. I fully expect it and would be suprised if it didn't happen...
    I agree with above. Israel will make an emphatic statement to the rest of the Arab world! I think once a couple of nukes are dropped the world will know how serious Israel is!! Pray for the un-saved.

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