Fear not, for I am with you; Be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, Yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’
That's a good point. If Yellowstone blew today, no way life could go on with those things. And you know that area has been really quiet lately...if it should get active again, then I would have to believe in all my heart the Lord would be calling us up first!!!!
(4 hours ago)
Dublin Airport will remain closed for all inbound and outbound commercial flights until 2000 hours tonight
Shannon Airport is open but will close at 1900 hours. Cork airport will remain closed until 2000. Overflights permitted above FL205
Interesting scenario --- Scenarios: What if volcano disruption lasts weeks, months? - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63J39F20100420
(Reuters) - Experts say they cannot predict the duration of the volcanic ash cloud that continues to disrupt European aviation, and hence its economic impact.
European air traffic could return to normal within days, or the disruption could last months. Below are three scenarios looking at the market and economic impact if the crisis lasts a further week, a month or six months or more.
DISRUPTION FOR A FURTHER WEEK
If the disruption lasts for a second week, the economic impact will increase sharply.
-- Many stranded travellers would manage to return home but would not be replaced by new visitors, leaving hotels that have done a brisk trade this week facing lower occupancy.
-- Airline stocks would fall sharply, with much depending on whether governments sounded open to the idea of a bailout.
-- Crude prices would be further undermined, and the currency market impact seen so far would be exacerbated. The Kenyan shilling and Turkish lira would remain under pressure on worries about horticulture and tourism.
-- More firms would begin to suffer from lack of supplies normally delivered by "just-in-time" air cargo. Some manufacturers would lack of essential components, supermarkets would go short of flowers, fruit and vegetables from Africa, some pharmaceutical firms might run short of supplies.
-- Supply chains would become more flexible. Some supermarkets are already flying in perishable goods from Africa to Spain then trucking them to destinations under the ash cloud. Logistics firms are setting up hubs at airports that are still operating, then using bikes and vans within the affected area.
-- The impact on gross domestic product is hard to calculate, and much will depend on the degree of disruption. Areas of European airspace were opening and closing on Tuesday as the cloud moved, and this is hard to predict and impossible to model. Capital Economics said it doubted the disturbance would not knock more than about 0.1 percent off British or euro zone GDP in the second quarter.
-- PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates a week of disruption would destroy around 0.025-0.05 percent of annual British GDP, and the same would probably be true of other European countries.
DISRUPTION FOR A MONTH LONGER
-- This would force many firms to revolutionize the way they operate. Conferences and meetings would be canceled, not only during the month itself, but also possibly later in the year.
-- Logistics firms might adapt better, reducing the impact by using other hubs or delivery methods. The travel and tourism industry would suffer seriously, particularly in Mediterranean economies such as Turkey, Greece, Italy and Spain. Even if the cloud cleared by the end of May, summer holiday bookings in Europe would likely be seriously affected. Capital Economics estimates a 10 percent fall in visitors would lower Greek, Spanish and Portuguese GDP by around 1 percent this year.
-- A month-long disruption would almost certainly impact quarterly European GDP, although by how much is impossible to work out without knowing the degree of disruption and how well firms react. Some economists say there are too many variables for it to be worth modeling.
-- Airlines would push governments very hard to relax restrictions, putting policymakers in an awkward position. If European airspace turned out to be 99.9 percent safe, with 20-22,000 flights a day that would still mean some 20 aircraft a day suffering ill effects or engine failure. Any crash would be politically disastrous for both airlines and policymakers.
-- Travel delays would almost certainly slow the European and IMF response to Greece's debt crisis. The postponement of the IMF-EU meeting on Monday pushed Greek bond yields higher, and any further delays would also be taken badly by markets.
CRISIS LASTS SIX MONTHS
The last eruption of this volcano lasted over a year, so this cannot be ruled out.
-- Airlines and governments would be desperate to get the flights operating again, and would have to be convinced the airspace closure was necessary if they were to maintain it.
-- Even intermittent disruption could be devastating in terms of lost bookings. Logistics firms might adapt relatively quickly, getting manufacturing back on line, but some aerial commodity shipping might simply cease if no other cost-effective method was available.
-- The impact on the travel and tourism industry over the peak summer period would have a marked impact on GDP. Some economists suggested it might be enough to push Europe back into recession. Chatham House economist Vanessa Rossi said if the sort of total shutdown seen over the weekend continued over the summer it could shave 1-2 percent off European GDP.
-- The impact would vary sharply from country to country. In Britain, losses from absent American and European tourists might be more than offset by Britons holidaying at home. In the Mediterranean, the impact would almost certainly be negative. South Africa would suffer badly if the World Cup was affected.
-- The IMF and EU would have to find ways of organizing aid packages that did not require frequent visits or risk delaying financial support to a string of countries across Europe.
(3 hours ago)
Eurocontrol: Almost 75% of the total continent area is free of any restrictions
Eurocontrol: Services are not being provided to civil aircraft in parts of Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Sweden and the UK.
RAW — EUROCONTROL: European air traffic situation update at 18.30 CET - http://wireupdate.com/wires/3210/raw...-at-18-30-cet/
BRUSSELS (BNO NEWS) -- EUROCONTROL on Tuesday released the following statement regarding airspace conditions in Europe.
"EUROCONTROL expects 13,000 flights to take place today in European airspace. On a normal Tuesday, we would expect 28,000.
The new procedures agreed yesterday have been in place since 06.00UTC today. At the current time, in the upper airspace above 20,000 feet, all European airspace is available with the exception of Finland which is closed at all levels.
Almost 75% of the total continent area is free of any restrictions. This area includes: Austria, the Balkan area, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, southern France, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Romania, northern Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine.
Air traffic control services are not being provided to civil aircraft in significant parts of the lower airspace primarily in north-western Europe, including Denmark, Estonia, Ireland, Latvia, Sweden and the UK.
Air traffic control services are being provided albeit with very significant restrictions on the number of flights authorised, and/or the routes and flight procedures to be followed, in several parts of the lower airspace in north-western Europe, including Germany and northern France.
The latest updated map of observed and forecast areas of possible ash contamination is enclosed. The latest ‘Air Ash Concentration Chart’ describing those areas where no-fly zone proposals have been made to the EUROCONTROL Member States will be available from 20:00 CET in the ‘Network Headline News’ section of the site: https://www.cfmu.eurocontrol.int/PUBPORTAL/gateway/spec/index.html"
(2 hours ago)
British Airways going rogue? Reports of 12 to 15 long-haul flights heading towards London Heathrow.
BAW 9120 took off from Mexico City. Its a 747 heading to London Heathrow.
Sky News: 26 BA long-haul flights heading towards UK airports.
BA 777 (BAW17V) from Denver just made a U-Turn over Isle of Man - look: http://twitpic.com/1h3edf
Sky News says firt BA longhaul flight to land at 19:12 local at London's Heathrow.
(less than 1 hour ago)
BAW102 (B767) and BAW17V (B777) in holding pattern
Civil Aviation Authority says BA would breach regulations if flights landed at Heathrow tonight
Sky News: British Airways not engaged in an act of defiance against authorities.
BAW84, a B747 from Vancouver, now over Belfast. BAW102 (B767) and BAW17V (B777) in holding pattern.
Two British Airways flights have landed in Brussels
3 British Airways flights now in holding pattern - look: http://twitpic.com/1h3km9
BA confirms one flight landed in Brussels, number of others diverting to other European airports
Dutch authorities allow first night flights
BA flights from Tel Aviv and Beijing diverted to Amsterdam. BA flights from Bahrain and from Delhi diverted to Brussels.
REU: Activity in Icelandic volcano decreasing, force behind eruptions weaker - Iceland Civil Protection Dept.
Poland will reopen its airspace at 0500 GMT on Wednesday
Civil Aviation Authority says there will be a phased reintroduction of UK airspace from 10pm
BA flights in the air at the moment will be allowed to land at Heathrow later this evening -- Sky News
Britain to reopen most airspace within hours - Reuters
UN agency says Icelandic volcano poses no health threat - http://wireupdate.com/wires/3217/un-...health-threat/
UNITED NATIONS (BNO NEWS) – The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that even though the Eyjafjallajokull volcano has been ejecting ash lately it poses no health threat beyond immediate vicinity, The United Nations News reported on Tuesday.
The WMO warned that the current high pressure system with weak winds does not help to disperse the ash cloud, but a stronger low pressure system is expected for the end of the week, that will likely push the clouds towards the Artic.
The plume of from Eyjafjallajokull volcano was reaching less than 3,000 meters and is whitening as days goes by, indicating that the ash clouds contain mainly steam and little volcanic ash. Regarding public health, such ash has no hazarding effect except in the immediate vicinity of the Icelandic volcano.
A WHO environmentalist said that the very coarse particles near the volcano caused a lot of irritation and people should take precautions, such as the use of goggles and masks. The rest of Europe has not received this air pollution. There are not health threat concerns in other European countries.
However the fine particles ejected into higher levels of the atmosphere, around 6,000 meters, will remain there for some time and will only be removed by thunderstorms. These particles pose a threat for planes and aircrafts. If the particles are sucked into a jet engine, they can erode and destroy fan blades, leading to the engine stalling.
It is very possible that the plume will disperse in the air without there being any concentration at ground level.
Irish airspace and airports cleared to reopen
Full services in all Irish and UK airspace from 2100 hrs local time tonight. May take up to three days to recover.
RAW — Irish Aviation Authority statement on re-opening all Irish airspace immediately - http://wireupdate.com/wires/3219/raw...e-immediately/
DUBLIN (BNO NEWS) — The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) on Tuesday evening released the following statement to announce the re-opening of all Irish and UK airspace with immediate effect.
“The Irish Aviation Authority and the Civil Aviation Authority of the UK have sanctioned the resumption of full service on a phased basis in all Irish and UK airspace from 2100hrs local tonight – Tuesday 20th April, 2010, to Europe, North America and the UK.
The lAA warns that the lifting of the restrictions is subject to the ash cloud, currently positioned between Iceland and Ireland, not moving over Ireland tonight and no further aggressive volcanic activity.
It is expected that flights tomorrow will focus on positioning aircraft and crews and full service by the airlines may take up to three days to recover. Passengers should consult airline websites before travelling to the airport for flights.
Following the agreement of the European Transport Ministers yesterday, the Irish Aviation Authority, UK Civil Aviation Authority, and UK NATS have agreed on a safe model to allow flight operations to resume in both countries.
Mr Eamonn Brennan, IAA CEO, said:
“We welcome this agreement, which balances safety priorities with the need of the industry. This provides the foundation for a long term solution to the volcanic ash issue, however we need to be careful over the next few days as we are concerned that the ash cloud currently positioned between Iceland and Ireland may drift over the country. Ireland is one of the closest European countries to the exclusion zone.
Subject to Ireland not being in the high risk exclusion zone, and the continued dispersal of the volcanic ash cloud and no further significant eruptions, restrictions in Irish airspace will end at 2100hrs local tonight in ‘Zone 2’ as per the Eurocontrol definition:
- ZONE 2: In low contaminated areas, States should allow airlines to operate, fully supported by shared data, including advice from the scientific community (meteo, volcanic ash proliferation etc.) including safety assessments, supported by tests under the oversight of the competent Safety Authorities;
The aircraft engine manufacturers have been consulted and detailed technical guidance has been developed in conjunction with CAA and IAA. This has been issued to airlines and maintenance organisations. This incudes a risk management regime and additional maintenance. Each airline will have to comply with guidance material that will include additional reporting, maintenance inspections and regular ash ingestion assessments.
Full service by the airlines may take up to three days to recover as aircraft must be repositioned and passengers should consult airline websites before travelling to the airport for flights.
The IAA has no information on any individual flights and passengers should consult airline websites before travelling to the airport for flights.
There will be a further update at 1000 tomorrow Wednesday 21st April 2010.”
Threat of new, larger Icelandic eruption looms - http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...pjuSAD9F6UG180
REYKJAVIK, Iceland — For all the worldwide chaos that Iceland's volcano has already created, it may just be the opening act.
Scientists fear tremors at the Eyjafjallajokull (ay-yah-FYAH-lah-yer-kuhl) volcano could trigger an even more dangerous eruption at the nearby Katla volcano — creating a worst-case scenario for the airline industry and travelers around the globe.
A Katla eruption would be 10 times stronger and shoot higher and larger plumes of ash into the air than its smaller neighbor, which has already brought European air travel to a standstill for five days and promises severe travel delays for days more.
The two volcanos are side by side in southern Iceland, about 12 miles (20 kilometers) apart and thought to be connected by a network of magma channels.
Katla, however, is buried under ice 550 yards (500 meters) thick — the massive Myrdalsjokull glacier, one of Iceland's largest. That means it has more than twice the amount of ice that the current eruption has burned through — threatening a new and possibly longer aviation standstill across Europe.
Katla showed no signs of activity Tuesday, according to scientists who monitor it with seismic sensors, but they were still wary.
Pall Einarsson, professor of geophysics at the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, said one volcanic eruption sometimes causes a nearby volcano to explode, and Katla and Eyjafjallajokull have been active in tandem in the past.
In fact, the last three times that Eyjafjallajokull erupted, Katla did as well.
Katla also typically awakens every 80 years or so, and having last exploded in 1918 is now slightly overdue.
That notion is frightening for nearby villagers, who would have to quickly evacuate to avoid the flash floods that would rip down Katla's slopes. Even last week's eruption generated spectacular cascades of melted water and ice chunks the size of houses when burning gases and molten earth carved through the glacier.
Svenn Palsson, the 48-year-old mayor of the coastal village of Vik, said residents are going over evacuation plans now just in case.
With a population of 300, Vik has been covered in 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) of ash from the Eyjafjallajokull eruption, but the real concern is Katla. Residents would have two to three hours to reach the safety of a shelter if the volcano erupted and caused the ice to melt quickly.
"We have practiced and can do it in 30 minutes," Palsson said.
Other areas around the mountain, however, would have no more than 20 minutes to evacuate, he said.
Katla's substantial ice cap is a major worry because it's that mixture of melting cold water and lava that causes explosions and for ash to shoot into high altitudes. Strong winds can then carry it on over Europe.
So far there have been minor tremors at Katla, which scientists believe to be movements in the glacier ice, but the activity from Eyjafjallajokull is making measurements more difficult to read and an eruption more tricky to predict.
"It is more difficult to see inside Katla," said Kristin Vogfjord, geologist at the Icelandic Met Office.
Her team of geophysicists, based in the capital of Reykjavik, use seismometers and GPS units planted around volcanoes to monitor quakes and the swelling of the land, which can indicate magma reservoirs that are pushing up through the crust. The area around Eyjafjallajokull rose up as much as 3 inches (8 centimeters) in recent months and then contracted slightly following the latest eruption.
Vogfjord says Katla's sensitivity to eruptions at Eyjafjallajokull may have to do with pressure shifts in the Earth's crust that are caused by an eruption's magma flow.
There are no clear answers, however, and even fewer predictions about what the future may hold. Volcano eruptions, like earthquakes, are difficult to predict.
"Katla can start tomorrow or in 100 years, you don't know," said Palsson. "All we can do is be ready."
First British Airways flight lands at London's Heathrow Airport after U.K. airspace reopens
Here's another cool one