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Thread: California Evacuation: Dam ready to expode on towns/people

  1. #21
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    Here is the latest update ( Feb 14,2017 ) on the repairs and progress that being made to the dam...

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...years-ago.html
    Isaiah 41:10

    Fear not, for I am with you; Be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, Yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’

  2. #22
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    What on one wants to say is that, with the exception of the hole in the main spillway, the dam is functioning exactly as expected. The engineers designed the emergency spillway with the hopes that it would never get used. (Otherwise they would have had to invest a lot more in it) The design of the emergency spillway is such that in the worst case scenario, the dam will undergo a slow, gradual failure, rather than the water just pushing the dam out of the way and the whole thing going at once.

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    If the headline to this article doesn't fall into the 'fake news' category, than I don't know what would.

    The Oroville Dam Crisis Exposes the Flaws in Trump's Infrastructure Plan

    http://www.citylab.com/politics/2017...#disqus_thread

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Koalie View Post
    If the headline to this article doesn't fall into the 'fake news' category, than I don't know what would.
    http://www.citylab.com/politics/2017...#disqus_thread
    Not sure how you wound up reading that site, since it is seriously LEFTIST.

    Headlines (which you quoted) are designed to attract attention (sometimes called click-bait on the Net) and the articles don't always follow the same train of thought. A lot of this article is the general drivel of "infotainment" that fills much of the MSM. A line near the end tells how deludedly liberal the author is, though:
    So far, Trump’s plan largely means
    So Far? So far, Trump has been in office for what, 25 days?

    Yep, liberal media spinning stories to help confuse the public. One of the talk radio guys on American Family Radio used to say that 12 Billion dollars a month is being spent to keep us confused. Sometimes I think he underestimated the amount.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex2 View Post
    Not sure how you wound up reading that site, since it is seriously LEFTIST.
    I was watching a Greg Gutfield YouTube clip and he was blasting this paper for putting the blame on Trump.

    One of the talk radio guys on American Family Radio used to say that 12 Billion dollars a month is being spent to keep us confused. Sometimes I think he underestimated the amount.
    Yes, 12 billion seems awfully low. The MSM and journalism is obviously false. Then you have the propaganda from sitcoms, movies and books. Then you have to look at where they begin: in the school system!
    Some might say that I'm putting on a tin hat right now but I believe much of the chemicals and preservatives that are put in food and beverages can cause an array of sicknesses, some of which are mental illness (confusion.)
    What about pharmaceuticals? Yes, some people genuinely need their medication but way too many doctors just write a rx without doing more testing to find the root cause. Those pills could also cause confusion.
    So, 12 billion is low.

  6. #26
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    This whole scenario is an interesting one to analyze... It appears that the rock downstream of the emergency spillway and under the main spillway may not have been as stable as expected. I can understand how that "mistake" could be made. It is hard to test the type of pounding the water gives at high flow rates on a lab specimen.

    That said, the human error sure raised it head in this one. It appears a week or so ago that "gap" formed in the main spillway. To analyze it the dam site manager shut down the main spillway to go investigate. Looking at the published timelines, it appears that he/she kept the main spillway either shut down or at minimum flows for days to keep from enlarging the gap in it. They watched the water rise behind the dam, still keeping the spillway throttled. The water spilled over the emergency spillway by a good foot at the height of the escapade. The hillside below the emergency spillway began to crumble more than the main spillway and the structural integrity of the dam was threatened.

    Only then did they open her up, and let the main spillway flow the maximum! Clearly it was better to sacrifice the main spillway than the whole dam. I was amazed when they were able to draw down the entire lake about 10 feet in about a day! That shows the capability of the main spillway.

    There was a big mess up here. Someone kept that main spillway closed way longer than necessary/prudent. You could always repair the main spillway in the dry season.... you can't repair a dam burst. These folks need a lot of learning in the field of "Risk Management"

    Also, California needs to seriously rethink it's funding priorities. This is not the Fed's fault; it is a California priority fault...
    "Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. Leave the rest to God..."

  7. #27
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    Exactly right!

    The person who wrote the article blaming it on Trump is clueless.

    A big part of his campaign platform was that he wanted to fix America's infrastructure... bridges, dams, airports. Many times I've heard him talk about it, how compared to nations such as UAE, Qatar, Japan that America's airports, roads, bridges, etc, are like a third world country. We've been neglecting all of it for years and because of that our infrastructure is in great need of repair. What it comes down to, complete mismanagement of our money courtesy of Obama. And the same mismanagement by governors of liberal states such as California.

    Trump plans to fix all of that.

    How he is supposed to do all that in 25 days??? And it is all his fault???

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigMoose View Post
    ...
    There was a big mess up here. Someone kept that main spillway closed way longer than necessary/prudent. You could always repair the main spillway in the dry season.... you can't repair a dam burst. These folks need a lot of learning in the field of "Risk Management"

    Also, California needs to seriously rethink it's funding priorities. This is not the Fed's fault; it is a California priority fault...
    The manager that kept the spillway closed needs to find a different job. He only needed to look at forecast flows into the lake to know how much he needed to release. (And Army Corps of Engineers or some similar entity could have told him how much.)

    Quote Originally Posted by tiffanybw View Post
    Exactly right!
    ... We've been neglecting all of it for years and because of that our infrastructure is in great need of repair. What it comes down to, complete mismanagement of our money courtesy of Obama. ...

    Trump plans to fix all of that.

    How he is supposed to do all that in 25 days??? And it is all his fault???
    I don't think our infrastructure will be fixed, but instead, I think we are headed for what is known as Catabolic Collapse. (I can't find a simple explanation of it right now, except on some blogs.)

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiffanybw View Post
    I've been reading about this and seems from what I've read that government has been aware for a very long time of the problems with the dam but did absolutely nothing.

    Then this happens, I think starting last Wednesday or Thursday... a video from last Thursday... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWxAgkNy24U. Water levels were already way over and the spillway had already failed yet nothing was done to get people out of harms way.

    It wasn't until Sunday that an evacuation order was issued and that evacuation order... "GET OUT NOW". Because of that, people had no time to prepare or pack personal possessions to take with them. And so complete chaos and traffic gridlock with no one going no where because 200,000 people were told to get out immediately all at once.

    Here is a video explaining: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIQpbylBtbg


    Edit: Here is a good article about it.

    http://www.vox.com/science-and-healt...ood-evacuation

    From reading that, looks like they decided to still use the damaged main spillway and that is why the water level has lowered now, because so far it has held up. But they are expecting more rains, and so the evacuation order is still in place.

    Praying for all impacted by this.

    Imagine if an earthquake were to hit right now, even a small one.

    Praying that does not happen.
    Agree Tiffany! TRex, you are spot on!
    Catabolic Collapse: on a microeconomic level it's like buying a nice house but not budgeting that along with mortgage you should also budget upkeep and inevitable costs to repair aging furnace/AC, appliances, plumbing, roofing, foundation and structure etc. So, after the house is 100+ years old it's cheaper to raze it and start over because it's so badly damaged. The homeowner has to declare bankruptcy and start renting instead.
    Or, you buy a car but don't pay to get regular oil changes. The engine blows, car dies then it's repo'd because there's no budget for the dead car's monthly payment while also paying to ride the bus and taking taxis.
    On a macro level, societies collapse when they have complex, expensive infrastructures they don't maintain. They either go without and return to a simpler way of life minus all that, or they go bust trying to survive the debts of assets with plummeting value due to costs to repair and/or replace them. Knowing how bad most individual budgets are often managed, the get now-pay later generations, then add progressive levels of corrupt and poorly managed government - yea, if we even make it that far before Tribulation the U.S. will likely collapse.
    Toots

  10. #30
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    Thanks for your comments up thread! To expand on the poor decisions...

    California should have used the citizens taxes to repair and improve this dam. Instead the legislature decided that non citizens should get health care, food stamps, and other benefits. They need to own that decision, and be held accountable for it.

    In a similar vein, I was frosted when I saw all the HUM-Vs and APC's that you and I paid for and gave to Iraq for their defense compromised by the cowardice of the Iraq guards they were given to. They stripped off their uniforms and ran. Those armaments were seized by the "bad guys" over there, whatever alphabet soup you want to use to describe them: ISIS, ISIL, etc. Now sooner or later, you and I are going to have to pay to destroy them... obama's administration should have been held accountable for that, but there were crickets in the media at the time.
    "Live simply. Love generously. Care deeply. Speak kindly. Leave the rest to God..."

  11. #31
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    http://rr-bb.com/showthread.php?2009...g-on-2-17-2017


    is a prayer chain for southern cali


    a huge storm and floods is said to be coming this weekend
    For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also (Matthew 6:21)

  12. #32
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    Praying for the safety of these ppl.
    1 Thessalonians 5:4 (New International Version)

    4But you, brothers, are not in darkness so that this day should surprise you like a thief.

  13. #33
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    Default Orville Dam Update

    Experts predict that the power of the incoming storms will be much worse. Link below will crunch the numbers...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clqe-gHnVWE
    Isaiah 41:10

    Fear not, for I am with you; Be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, Yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with My righteous right hand.’

  14. #34
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    The youtube article is pretty interesting, but it has several errors in it
    Not enough errors to qualify for Main Stream Media, though

    The video seems to be assembled from multiple "news casts" he made over the past week or so.

    I will discuss a couple of errors, here:
    At 0:45 to 1:00 minutes his calculations give him 13 feet of overtop, but the calculations are based on flow through the main spillway, not over the emergency spillway. I don't think his numbers are quite right for the effect of a spillway breach. That said, I don't have enough data or the right math to give a better picture, so for now, his estimate of 5 million CFS is the best estimate we have. (If someone knows the algorithms, I can tell them what numbers to "punch in")

    At 2:15 to 2:22 minutes he says something about the emergency spillway being only 6 feet deep, not the "30 feet that we were told" but the 30 feet was the main spillway, and it referred to the depth of water behind the spillway gates. They were worried the gates would be undermined and would get pushed out of the dam structure. (And that is still a threat)

    After that a lot of what he says gets repeated, but he does include new info in each segment.

    After 7:50 he goes on to discuss his main interest, which seems to be mass earthquakes related to solar cycles. (I never connected the two before, but can't say he is wrong). I find the rest of the video interesting, but off topic for this discussion.

  15. #35
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    Some updates and maybe corrections.

    There is a graphic on this page that shows the amount of water in the lake.
    https://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/re...tion?resid=ORO

    As of this morning, they have drained off all of the excess water that recent storms brought them.
    They have long way to go. The weather patterns indicate that they will be fighting this for several months.
    Maybe they will win, and maybe they will lose.

    Possible correction to what I wrote earlier.
    The CBS local station in that area said it was the emergency spillway they thought might collapse, rather than the main spillway.
    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/201...nfrastructure/
    In all of the confusion, I have heard "reliable sources" name both of the spillways, at one time or another, as the threat, and it is impossible to determine which one was linked to the "30 foot wall of water" they thought would be the result.

    I can say this. If erosion undercuts and causes failure of either spillway, the result would be bad for the people living downstream.

    There were some articles about this being a warning. The discussion in and following those articles made for an "interesting" read. The articles were supposed to be about the fact that when the evacuation order was given Sunday Evening, the response was chaotic. First hand accounts said that while some people reacted in sheer panic, others didn't respond at all for a while. Traffic slowed to less than one mile per hour and cars and gas stations ran out of gas.

    But in the articles, they drifted off into history of the problem, and in the discussions and comments they focused on the blame. Little was said about solutions. Very little. One person remarked something to the effect: "this isn't a warning, a warning imply's someone may heed the warning, and in this case, no one will."

    As a reminder, here is a timeline.
    http://fox40.com/2017/02/16/timeline...lake-oroville/

  16. #36

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    While local news was reporting the likely collapse of the emregency spillway, they were careful to point that the dam itself was not in danger lIke iit would have some calming effect. I thought that was hollow since the dam and primary spillway are all part other same system with the emergency spillway. If the emergency spillway fails, the result is the same. The massive lake of water would drain uncontrolled with catestrophic damage to everything dowstream. That is why they were evacating everyone in the first place.

    Marvin

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