Space Weather

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RETURN OF THE SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1429, the source of many strong flares and geomagnetic storms earlier this month, is about to re-appear following a two-week trip around the backside of the sun. Magnetic loops towering over the sun's NE limb herald the sunspot's approach:



Earlier today, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed plumes of plasma rising and falling over the limb: movie. Moreover, a pair of solar flares (C5- and C7-class) in the sunspot's towering magnetic canopy caused waves of ionization to ripple through the high atmosphere over Europe.

While sunspot AR1429 was transiting the farside, it erupted multiple times. Between March 23rd and March 27th, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded four coronal mass ejections, each racing away from the sun faster than 3 million mph:
http://www.spaceweather.com/

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LYRID METEOR SHOWER: Earth is approaching the debris field of ancient Comet Thatcher, source of the annual Lyrid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak on April 21-22; a nearly-new moon on those dates will provide perfect dark-sky conditions for meteor watching. Usually the shower is mild (10-20 meteors per hour) but unmapped filaments of dust in the comet's tail sometimes trigger outbursts 10 times stronger. [video] [Lyrid chat]

GROWING SUNSPOT: What a difference a day makes. On April 16th, sunspot AR1460 did not exist. Twenty-four hours later it was twice as big as the planet Earth. This April 17th movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action:



The sunspot's magnetic field is still too simple for strong flares, but if the expansion continues apace, instabilities could develop that lead to explosions. Readers with solar telescopes should keep an eye on AR1460. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

SPECTACULAR EXPLOSION: Magnetic fields on the sun's northeastern limb erupted around 17:45 UT on April 16th, producing one of the most visually-spectacular explosions in years. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the blast at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths:

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The explosion, which registered M1.7 on the Richter Scale of solar flares, was not Earth-directed, but it did hurl a CME into space. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have analyzed the trajectory of the cloud and found that it will hit NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, the Spitzer space telescope, and the rover Curiosity en route to Mars. Planets Venus and Mars could also receive a glancing blow.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

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SOLAR ACTIVITY INTENSIFIES: Huge sunspot AR1476 is crackling with M-class solar flares and appears to be on the verge of producing something even stronger. The sunspot's 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy for X-class flares, the most powerful kind. Earth is entering the line of fire as the sunspot rotates across the face of the sun. Solar flare alerts: text, phone.

Earlier today, amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft of New Mexico detected strong shortwave radio bursts coming from the sunspot. Click to hear the "solar static" that roared out of his loudspeaker:


Dynamic spectrum courtesy of Wes Greenman, Alachua Radio Observatory

"The strongest burst so far occured around 1631 UT on May 9th," reports Ashcraft. "I am observing at 28 MHz and 21.1 MHz. As I send this note I am hearing more bursting, indicating powerful magnetic dynamism within active region 1476."

Solar radio bursts are caused by plasma instabilities that ripple through the sun's atmosphere in the aftermath of powerful flares. With AR1476 poised for more eruptions, this 'radio activity' is likely to continue for days. Stay tuned.


http://www.spaceweather.com/

[lighthouse]

SOLAR ECLIPSE THIS WEEKEND: On Sunday, May 20th, the Moon will pass in front of the Sun, producing an annular solar eclipse visible across the Pacific side of Earth. The path of annularity, where [U]the sun will appear to be a "ring of fire,"[/U] stretches from China and Japan to the middle of North America:



http://www.spaceweather.com/

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http://www.spaceweather.com/


CHANCE OF X-FLARES: The chance of an X-flare today is increasing as sunspot AR1515 develops a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for the most powerful explosions. The sunspot itself is huge, stretching more than 100,000 km (8 Earth-diameters) from end to end. This movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the behemoth growing and turning toward Earth over the past five days:



If any X-flares do occur today, they will certainly be Earth-directed. The sunspot is directly facing our planet. Radio blackouts, sudden ionospheric disturbances, and geomagnetic storms could be in the offing

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GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A fast-moving CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14th at approximately 1800 UT. The impact was not as strong as forecasters expected. Nevertheless, the blow compressed Earth's magnetosphere and sparked a mild (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm, in progress. So far, few sightings of auroras have been reported. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

The arrival of the CME shook Earth's magnetic field, which in turn induced electrical currents in the ground at Arctic latitudes. Rob Stammes measured the effect from his magnetic observatory in Lofoten, Norway:



Stammes has observed many CME strikes from his laboratory at the Polar Light Center. He says this one was not particularly strong, at least in terms of ground currents. Relatively weak ground currents are consistent with the muted displays of auroras in the aftermath of the strike.

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http://www.spaceweather.com/

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 29-30 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream buffeting Earth's magnetic field. Even stronger storming could occur on July 31st when a CME associated with yesterday's M6-flare arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras for the next three nights

SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKS UP: Sunspot AR1532 is crackling with M-class solar flares. The latest, an M6-class eruption on July 28th (2056 UT), produced a bright flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation,

Update: Contrary to earlier reports, this explosion did produce a CME and the cloud is heading for Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will reach our planet on July 31st at 1500 UT (+/- 7 hours). Weak to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

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SIGNIFICANT SOLAR FLARE, NOT EARTH-DIRECTED: Magnetic fields snaking over the sun's northeastern limb erupted on August 18th around 01:02 UT. The M5.5 class eruption was not Earth-directed, but it could herald a significant uptick in geoeffective solar activity as the new active region turns toward Earth in the days ahead.


http://www.spaceweather.com/

METEOR SMOKE: Researchers using NASA's AIM spacecraft have recently discovered that meteor smoke is a key ingredient of Earth's mysterious noctilucent clouds. "Meteor smoke" is the fine ashen debris left over when a meteoroid burns up in the atmosphere

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IONIZATION WAVES: Magnetic fields snaking around the sun's southeastern limb are crackling with C- and M-class solar flares. Extreme UV pulses from the flares are illuminating Earth's upper atmosphere, causing waves of ionization to ripple around the dayside of our planet.



http://www.spaceweather.com/

[Alex]

You might be the only one posting but you have readers so don't stop. I always liked Milky Way and Mars Bars.

[lighthouse]

CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1560 has more than quadrupled in size since August 30th, and now the fast growing active region is directly facing our planet: movie. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar fares during the next 48 hours. Solar Flare alerts: text, phone.

MAGNIFICENT ERUPTION: A filament of magnetism curling around the sun's southeastern limb erupted on August 31st, producing a coronal mass ejection (CME), a C8-class solar flare, and one of the most beautiful movies ever recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:



The explosion hurled a CME away from the sun traveling faster than 500 km/s (1.1 million mph). The cloud, shown here, is not heading directly toward Earth, but it will deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Sept. 3rd.
http://www.spaceweather.com/

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INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 01 Sep 2012, 1256UT

A long duration C8.4 flare peaking at 20:43UT on August 31 occurred in active region 1562 - Catania sunspot group 65 located in the South-East of the solar disk. The flare was accompanied with a filament eruption. The CACTus software determined the event as a halo CME - Earth directed - with a speed of 520 km/s. Geomagnetic disturbances are possible in 4 days. The >=10MeEV proton flux measured by GOES increased but is still below the storm level. We expect more C-flares and possibly an M-flare. The Earth passed from one solar sector to the other sector (with opposite interplanetary magnetic field). This caused unsettled conditions.
http://sidc.oma.be/

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3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Sep 01 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 2 September. Activity is expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME. High latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels on 3 September. On day 3 (4 September), activity is expected to decrease to mostly unsettled conditions as CME effects wane.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

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space weather resources

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/spaceweather/

[lighthouse]

CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY: A coronal mass ejection (CME) propelled toward Earth by a filament eruption on August 31st is due to arrive later today. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles and a 10% chance of storms at mid-latitudes on Sept. 3rd.

[lighthouse]

MYSTERY SPHERES ON MARS: NASA's Mars rover Opportunity, still active after all these years, has just discovered a dense accumulation of puzzling little spheroids in a rock outcrop on the Red Planet

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[mbrown1219]

Use the link please for much more --- photos and information!

http://www.spaceweather.com/

Excerpt

Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery

SOLAR FLARE: On Oct. 8th at 1117 UT, a solar flare erupted on the northeastern edge of the sun's disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:



The explosion heralds the arrival of a farside active region, which will turn toward Earth later this week. Amateur astronomers with solar telescopes should train their optics on the NE limb, and stay tuned for action.

Realtime Noctilucent Cloud Photo Gallery
[previous years: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011]


Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On October 9, 2012 there were 1331 potentially hazardous asteroids.

Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)
Miss Distance
Mag.
Size
2012 SJ58
Oct 3
5.9 LD
--
26 m
1998 UO1
Oct 4
60.1 LD
--
2.1 km
2012 TV
Oct 7
0.7 LD
--
40 m
2012 TC4
Oct 12
0.2 LD
--
22 m
2005 GQ21
Oct 12
77 LD
--
1.0 km
1998 ST49
Oct 18
28.7 LD
--
1.3 km
1991 VE
Oct 26
34 LD
--
1.1 km
2001 CV26
Oct 30
68 LD
--
2.4 km
2007 PA8
Nov 5
16.8 LD
--
2.4 km
2010 JK1
Nov 25
9.3 LD
--
56 m
2009 LS
Nov 28
55.2 LD
--
1.1 km
2009 BS5
Dec 11
8.4 LD
--
15 m
4179 Toutatis
Dec 12
18 LD
--
2.7 km
2003 SD220
Dec 23
59.8 LD
--
1.8 km

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

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ASTEROID FLYBY--TODAY: Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 TC4 will fly past Earth on Oct. 12th only 96,000 km (0.25 LD) away. There is no danger of a collision, but the 16 meter-wide space rock will be close enough to photograph through backyard telescopes as it brightens to approximately 14th magnitude. NASA hopes to ping this this object with radar, refining its orbit and possibly measuring its shape

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[lighthouse]

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Oct 12 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-flare during the forecast period (13-15 October).

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 October). A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on days 2-3 (14-15 October) resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods. On day 3, a slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit as Region 1589 rotates into a more geoeffective position.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html

[lighthouse]

ORIONID METEOR SHOWER: Next weekend, Earth will pass through a stream of debris from Halley's Comet, source of the annual Orionid meteor shower. Forecasters expect ~25 meteors per hour when the shower peaks on Oct. 21st.



Solar wind
speed: 415.5 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1517 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 1434 UT Oct17
24-hr: C7 0802 UT Oct17
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1459 UT



NOAA Forecasts


Updated at: 2012 Oct 16 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 20 % 20 %
CLASS X 01 % 01 %


Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
Updated at: 2012 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 05 % 05 %
MINOR 01 % 01 %
SEVERE 01 % 01 %

High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 15 % 15 %
MINOR 15 % 15 %
SEVERE 10 % 10 %



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